Tuesday, January 23, 2018


This hand had been haunting me...

I have $11k which is below the avg of $12k.
$125/$250/$25 level

Seat 21: Big Blind (13,480 in chips)
Seat 219: UTG (9,650 in chips)
Seat 170: UTG+1 (3,363 in chips)
Seat 70: UTG+2 (31,794 in chips)
Seat 175: UTG+3 (7,815 in chips)
Seat 247: UTG+4 (27,100 in chips)
Seat 187: UTG+5 (9,000 in chips)
Seat 25: Dealer [ME] (10,896 in chips)
Seat 154: Small Blind (6,480 in chips)

Dealer [ME] : Card dealt to a spot [Qs Jc]

UTG : Folds
UTG+1 : Folds
UTG+2 : Folds
UTG+3 : Call 250
UTG+4 : Call 250
UTG+5 : Call 250
Dealer [ME] : Call 250
Small Blind : Call 125
Big Blind : Checks
*** FLOP *** [Qd Th Js]
Small Blind : Checks
Big Blind : Checks
UTG+3 : Checks
UTG+4 : Checks
UTG+5 : Checks

I thought for about this for a short while. I want to lead here as I dont expect to be against AK, but there are many Kx and 9x hands I get value from.

Dealer [ME] : Bets 1725
Small Blind : Folds
Big Blind : Call 1725
UTG+3 : Folds
UTG+4 : Folds
UTG+5 : Folds

*** TURN *** [Qd Th Js] [7c]
Big Blind : Checks

We are heads up now and the 7c changes nothing. I still am expecting Kx (KQ most likely?) or A9 here.

Dealer [ME] : Bets 3687
Big Blind : Call 3687

*** RIVER *** [Qd Th Js 7c] [9s]
Big Blind : All-in 7793

Dealer [ME] : ???????

Thursday, January 04, 2018

Two discussion Hands

First Hand:
MTT 150/300/25 level. Cutoff ($22k) limps for $300 (I see this alot when players build an above average stack they try to see flops and either hit hard or fold)
SB ($11k) Raises to $1300. (I find the amount interesting...)
I am in the BB with JJ and $12k. With 40BB, this hand starts off more like a cash hand... But I have 3 options here and 2 of them suck hard. Folding JJ to a SB raise over a limp is not worth considering. And Calling seems out of the question, as you will automatically get the cutoff calling and closing the betting.

And yes, I have considered two traps. 1. That the limp was with a monster AA hand to entice. Way to early for that and I dont just see that much in early ante levels. 2. That the SB has a big hand, thus the larger raise. I am not buying that either... If he has AA or KK, you kinda want action from a BB or a limper... Raising maybe $999-$1100 seems better. So why $1300. I do worry about QQ though...

I re-raise to $3200. I really like this sizing, but wouldn't mind some opinions. I am expecting the limper to fold and the SB to tell me how big his hand is with a response. I purposely didnt make it a min raise like $2700. If he folds, fine. If he calls, that is already a mistake and I have position. If he reraises, then I can dwell on QQ being a real possible holding...

But just to confuse matters, the CO FLATS. This is horrible! Even if he has a monster, he may end up playing it 3 way for stacks. So we can safely eliminate all hands better than JJ. He also creates nearly an 11BB overlay now...

SB Shoves for $11k. Conceivably I could fold here...Until the CO flats. Now its a $9k call to win $15k. There are only 3 hands we are not getting correct odds on, and we eliminated 2 of them. So he would have to have no other hands in his range (even adding AK to his range makes this a call) to fold.

I shove. The CO predictably fold. The SB flops over AKs and we are please with our thinking... but lose the hand. I am not going to be results oriented, but can you really make a case for folding when the SB shoves?

Second Hand:
83 players left, payouts start at 81... We have QQ in the BB with 15BB. Folds to the button who is 40BB deep and puts in a 2.8x raise. Would you do ANYTHING other than shove here?

If you fold, you are a nit to be sure. We dont play for the min-cash, do we?
If you CALL, are you going to check-fold to any flop with an A or K.
If you raise, are you going to raise and put in 1/2 your stack?

Monday, November 06, 2017

and now the cronicle of bad

When you dont bring your A game attention for whatever reason, you get results like this...

Hand 1 : LEVEL I of MTT. Flop two pair, and turn a boat. Villain bets out turn making $5k in pot with $5k behind. I shove. Not even with a delay, but like a child grabbing a piece of candy. Online, standard. Live 3 table MTT??? I fold him out too much. I should have bet $2k or $2500 river in tighter online scenario. (overall, a minor mistake)

Hand 2 : Call a LP raise with A2 in the BB. Flop is KTx. He c-bets, I call. Turn is an Ace and he checks. I bet and he check-raises. Action. Well, considering its like level 3, this should not be taken lightly. I bet $1k (effective stacks $11k) and he check raises to $3500. A BIG check-raise to boot. Seems like a somewhat standard release. But for some inexplicable reason, I call. which also puts me on the hook with the river is another Ace. Now I think I am good and when he checks I make a FATAL mistake and bet. WTF? what pays me there other than 2 pair? He calls with a straight and he only called instead of shoving because I earlier showed down the hand above.

Ultimately I play a mean short stack, but was eliminated when my AQs was run down by JTo on the river. UGH. Still I like how I played that exit hand, so no lamenting that.

How can I after all this time, make such a bad play as in Hand 2? His check raise commits half my stack with a pair, and somehow I think he may be bluffing? wow is that bad. I am flagellating myself.

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

I am running well and here’s why

I finished first in my monthly league (5 table MTT) and final tabled 3 MTTs online in the last 10 or so entries for huge month. But Why? I could say I am running good, but that is a cheat. No one really runs good or bad over time. Conclusion? I must be playing better!

In the early stages, I am playing more from late position only. I am not going to open AQo UTG, because what am I going to gain when 500 bb deep in level 1? I believe this does not unbalance me too much as I can remain wide as I want in the Hijack or Cutoff. (more on this later though)

Middle stages, especially live, I am three betting middling pairs along with big hands. Its so hard to play 77 even on a K52 board when your opponent starts barreling. Smaller pairs may benefit from playing against narrow ranges w/ fold equity. This conflicts with some training that was getting and articles I was reading about flatting with middle pairs and trying to outplay your opponent post-flop, so I still have to reconcile that.

Late stages, I am opening up my 3 betting range to include what most people consider a good BALANCED 3-bet range overall. I do NOT try hard to balance this earlier for a few reasons:

1. I am setting up a 3-bet% tendency to be low so I can exploit that later, especially online. (I want my 3-bets later on to look strong, so I can 3-bet lighter.)

2. Online where stacks are deeper, I don’t need fold equity pre-flop with these middle pairs in early stages. I can get away from an awkward situation post flop. So instead I can pull bigger hands down into these less aggressive groups early for balance.

3. 3-Betting rarely tends to ISO the villain in early stages.

4. When I do make a strong hand, I can take a generic line like Bet-check-Bet and often get paid for 2 streets.

As an MTT player, I am playing strong hands for fold equity over enticement. I know its sorta “Lee Childs school of poker”, but by shoving or re-raising big hand pre-flop, you get lots of fold equity. You may be losing a bit of value (depending on the table), but you reduce volatility significantly. (Which I feel is under-rated in MTTs.)

Finally, In latter stages, I am very stack size aware now. Yesterday, I very comfortable 3-bet an early open with 87s because he had 20 bb (I had 30bb) and we were getting closer to the final stages. I put him in an awkward spot with the 3-bet and he tanked and folded.

I am also narrating my thoughts in my head (or sometimes out loud) which I realize is starting to gel into “having a plan” for the hand. Including when to FOLD, which was something I recently identified as a new leak that I didn’t have before. I want to be sticky, but I was getting to showdown too light too often. I am thinking about blockers more too.

I spent some time looking at check-raise ranges as of late. If you are going to check-raise strong draws, you also need to check-raise sets and top-2, instead of trapping. This in my opinion is the most import situation to balance ranges, to cover semi-bluffs.

I’d like to say this all my success is contained in the above wisdom, but the reality is that even in the $30k last night, so many players were playing "cash" ranges in the latter stages. I understand the interest in GTO and “standard plays” and ranges and all that jargon, but when you lose 15 bigs on A5o when you could get away so easy, I don’t call that “standard”. I saw many players that didn't understand their situation vs the larger table dynamic when they were under 20bb. I see spots were its +EV calling a UTG shove of 10-15 bigs late, because they are shoving to pick up chips before they post a BB. Exploitable when you look for it.

Monday, June 19, 2017

back to Vegas, but first...

In the weeks before my annual $1500 event, I decided to play a few $10-$15 MTTs online. I did NOT focus on all the intricate rules and hand reading and instead concentrated on what *I* do well. Knowing when to play a big pot. That is really what I focused on as my mantra and let the other stuff take a back seat. I cashed 5/5 with 2 final tables. Gez. Ok, perhaps the poker gods are trying to send me a message. "The cards are not what they seem."

There is quiet power in going against the grain. Everyone is now playing small ball, careful hand reading, GTO aspiration poker. And the messages are, dont play big pots when you dont know where you are at, call alot more than you think you should because... math, and play against your opponents theoretical range while narrowing it down each street. and I played that way for quite some time... struggling to learn things that others can do so much better. The exercise was worthwhile as I see thinks I might not have seen otherwise. But there still is the philosophy that says, maximize what you are good at and chuck the rest. There are even extreme examples like Tim Ferriss who suggests finding the most lucrative shortcuts in life and exploit them for all their worth. And now its time for my take on all that jazz.

"I like big pots and I can not lie..."

Now I am taking a different angle until the end game. I am going to inflate pots when I think I am ahead. I am going to check-raise my stack and dare villains to call. and I am going to polarize my range to make villains either have to guess or find a better spot.

Here is what I will focus on...
Maximize the RIO on hands where you are likely ahead. Use stack size, position and action to help determine ranges pre-flop. Narrow down post flop ESPECIALLY on FLOP.
Think about your backdoors, position, stack size and your BLOCKERS (and player type).
Make a shit-ton of value bets. Big ones. Big value bets. Forget slow-playing or trying to get to showdown. polarize your range.

Sounds like suicide, right? But in my recent observations, this maximizes your chance to go deep. and when you flame out, you flame out hard. but better to burn out, then fade away (cue guitar)...

More seriously and analytically, it seems like there are a ton of cases where getting the fold has value vs. maximizing value vs a range. Yet I also know that isnt true. It SEEMS that way, but it isnt. But it is about accumulating chips. and that is where this becomes a dance instead of a math exercise.

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Long time no post

I just didnt have anything new to say... but after reading about Google's AI defeating a GO champion, I started thinking about MTT strategy and my upcoming $1500 WSOP event. Last year, I finished deep which was helped significantly when I doubled up when the board paired, vaulting my AA above flopped 2 pair and setting me up nicely. In the end, I lost back to back flips, which is the kiss of death in an MTT.

It is somewhat common? wisdom that playing for anything but first is a waste of time. Combine that thought with my recent league run where I nearly finished last, but in the final month finished 5th. Why is it when you have nothing to lose you go deep? Well, for one its not always that way, you just remember those. But the air of truth is that when you play with abandon, you don't miss opportunities to maximize your return. Even if that means getting all your money in on 2 pair... or even a big draw. If you are not OUT, you are accumulating chips. Slowing down only when overwhelmingly building up a stack that allows you to stick to picking on small stacks.

This is my strategy going into this years event. I am not going to try and play perfect poker, but like the AI, I am going to try and maximize my deep run scenarios.

Friday, September 09, 2016

League nights, back to the grind

Season 2016-2017 of the WSOP poker leagues start this weekend, and I hope I am ready. It's all about ranges now...

Thursday, July 07, 2016

Event 56 racap - day 2 of 2

I start day two after doing my homework. I didn't have a good table draw anymore. I was going to break relatively quickly, and had 7 regs at the table, including a short stacked (15BB) Main Event 2015 final table player.

The bubble really popped so fast, I didnt even play a significant hand.

Next is a hand where I wish I had more notes. I open in the CO with J9s. The SB (Who was Nathan Tuthill). I completely wiff the Kxx flop, but I can rep the King easily here and I c-bet. He calls. The turn is an blank and it goes check-check. The river is an Ace and here is where I think I can take advantage of my REC image. There is an old saying, "When a Rec bombs the river, he has it". So I decide to play that cars, but I think I bet 60% pot to look less bluffy. Nathan, tanks for about 90 seconds while I just sit still. In the end, he surprises me with a hero call and I muck. If my table draw was better, I could have feasted off the image here for hours. In hindsight, I think the Ace was a POOR bluffing card as a King may just check behind...

Next hand I get 33 and I just chuck it. I have $64k and I am trying to decide what my current ranges should be... Table break.

New table, short stack shoves from the button. I have A6o in the BB and I pause, but call. He has some random two cards and I hold. Back up to $70k

A shorter stack opens and I have 88. I have created some bad spots recently by 3 betting 88, but in this case, I think his shorter stack size really boxed him in. The 3-bet works and I pick up some chippies.

I am not defending my BB well because the LP players have deep stacks.

Someone from MP (deep stack, opening many hands, spewy river calls) min opens (his standard open) and I 3 bet AJ from position. Now he MIN 4 bets? I know that there are guys out there that do this all the time, but I was thinking, "why"? His range is still wide in my eyes, so I call. Flop is Ten high and I have a backdoor flush to go with two overs. I am ready to peel and he him bets the pot. I KNOW the math demands a call here. I KNOW this. But I fold. He was playing this hand differently than he played the others I had seen and I made a bad fold. A small mistake to avoid a perhaps larger one. NOT A good play at all. But I did it. (he later did this to someone else, then bet 2x pot on river.)

MP raises and I defend my BB with AJs. The flop is KJx and I call his c-bet. Turn brings me a flush draw and it goes check-check. River is a total blank, but he checks. I think he has air, but check behind. I dont recall what he had, but my middle pair is good.

In the next hand I had KK. I think I might have been the UtG. I took it down pre-flop with a 3-bet is all my notes say. I recall I opened for 2.5x because I didnt want to limp.

Spewy-LAG player opens and I call very loose with 69s from button just to see a flop in position. BB wakes up with a hand and shoves. LAG calls. Flop is A69. D'oh. Oh well. Had BB not shoved, would have brutalized SLAG.

I have about 40BB at the end of L13.

To start L14, I induce a 3 bet by flatting my AK. A 4-bet squeeze comes and I get to shove and pick up $30k in chips without seeing a flop.

I defend my BB with a raggy ace. Flop is 224. He c-bets and I check raise. He calls. What can I put him on now? Turn is an ACE. It goes check-check. River is a blank and I make a decent sized river bet. He calls and mucks, very upset. Maybe he had like JJ? He was a decent player, although played a very cash game style. I saw him in the final 100 field...

Mentally, at the end of L14, I didnt feel right. I play a decent hand and finish the level at $140k, but really needed the break. I take stock of my position. From this point on, there is little difference between 100th place and 20th place. I need to pick up chips if I am going to avoid a min cash. I mentally prepare myself to not play tight for survival.

I open K9s from Hijack and get two callers. A K flops and I c-bet and both players call. Alarms are ringing and I shut it down.

I make a mental note that I am slightly below average stack for the first time in the tournament.

Japanese? Guy who doesnt speak English? has played just two hands in Day 2. The second time he doubled up with AA. He has about $60k and he shoves UTG. It folds to me in the BB and I have AKo. In other circumstances I could find a fold here, but since I put him on QQ-TT and AK/AQ, I decide that I need to call. He shows two red 6s. the runout sucks and I lose 60% of my stack.

My remaining $47k bleeds down to about $37k until I get KK in the SB. Cutoff opens for $9k. This is an easy shove and he will call. He tables QQ. A queen on the flop send me packing 91st.

If the Kings hold, I would still be below avg at $90k, but would have 30 BB, enough to keep making a run. And so it goes... I was not happy to go out. I was not celebrating my run. I was frustrated and what-not despite knowing that I ran well enough up to that point to not complain.

and now I record all this for some sort of weird posterity.

Wednesday, July 06, 2016

Full event 56 recap - Day 1 of 2

Started with plenty of recreational players and a low table draw. Lots of time to study my opponents here. No headphones. Tables start 6 handed. $7500 starting chips.

Limper on the first hand. Gez.

KK third hand. Yawn.

Reg sits down on my right in the 1 seat.

I made a frequency based raise with a borderline hand, opponent folds. I dont have details recorded.

L2: Open EP 99, I get a couple of callers. Flop 67A. My C-bet gets called by button. Turn is an 8. Fire second barrel and get check raised. OESD or not, too early to play big pot with 99 here. I am not sure I should fold here, but it was a large bet and I would have to hit my 10 outer to win the pot. I dont have the correct pot odds and I fold.

My AA raises and just the blinds to call. Flop a set. Not going to get action :(

At the end of Level 2, I have $9k. Not a ton, but more than the $7500 I started with...

In L3 we already have a short stack who shoves $2k at the 200/400 level. I decide to call in the blind with KQs. He rolls KK but the run-out give me a flush. Not my greatest moment, but I've never run good in a WSOP event before, so I feel really excited about such a small pickup.

In level 5, I am dealt KK and the flop comes out ThQc8c. I c-bet and he check raises! I dont get why and I dont see the logic of doing that here with a flush draw. I decide I have equity here and I call. The turn comes Jc and I decide to shove (for value I thought with all the redraws, but maybe I turned into KK a bluff. I considered this as a hand in my shove range here in the moment). He folds. (This hand is similar to a much lesser extent, to the monster hand coming...)

I finish level 6 at $16.5k, higher than my highest chip count in all of Event 29, so yeah me.

Most of level 6 I am card dead... I finally get a big hand, but get no action. Not too surprised based on the amount of folding I was doing recently.

Towards the end of L6, I have 99 and I get a position caller. I c-bet and he calls that also. I dont lose anymore money here when he shows the flush. Dont know why he let it get to showdown.

A couple of times, I have decent hands but have to fold them preflop either because of position or too much action. I do manage to scrap together some pots though and end up at $22k at dinner. Just about 18 BB when we return, so not great. I feel at home at the table, I dont have a villain at the table who I feel I cant play head to head with.

L7: After the break and after some more folding, I lost a small pot opening AK. I am worried now about my stack size... I also folded the AK a bit prematurely, so I know my stack size is on my mind.

End of L7 (about): It folds to me on the button and I raise QTs. The SB has 10 BB and shoves. I lost track of his stack size and I am mad at myself, but I cant compound the error by folding. I call. He shows K7s. I hit a T and pick up some chips here. I am now at about $21k going into the 300/600 level.

MONSTER TOURNAMENT HAND - see previous post.

Just a few rotations later, I open with QQ and get 3 bet by the guy who keeps showing up with big hands in the 4 seat. I am worried about how tight his 3 bet range must be, but decide I am not shoving pre. I call. Flop a SET!!! Life is good, poker is easy, etc. He calls a simple c-bet. Turn is a K and I have a perfect reason to check. Tricky I hope, I want him to put me on a marginal pair. He checks behind. On the river I bet $10k into about $15k. He says, "Good bet" while he tanks. In the end he calls and just shakes his head. I dont know what he had. I honestly didnt care at that point. For the first time I got a set paid off at the WSOP and I feel like for once I am the one who will enjoy some "run good".

At the end of L7, mostly from these 2 hands, I am at $65k!

L8: I raise AJ and get a caller. The flop is AKT and again a c-bet gets check raised by the 9 seat. I call. I've seen him play for 2-3 levels now and he is that guy who plays any two suited. He won a bit pot with J5s earlier. The turn is a second Ace. I am no longer afraid of his range. I let it check through. The river is another K and he bombs the river for pot. Big pot already, but I correctly raise anyway and he folds in disgust. (In L9 he takes the same line on someone else, gets call down, but this time he made a flush.)

I finish level 9 with not much further climax, with $79k.

I decide to press a bit. I open a hand with J9s from middle position. I get called by a guy who I think is playing too tight. I flop nothing, but c-bet. When he flats I decide to watch the board for an opportunity to run the Bet-Check-Bet line. We both check the turn. The river 3 flushes the board and I make a 80% pot bet. He hems and haws, but folds while commenting that he thought I was bluffing, but it was too much to find out. Perfect.

I bag $81k at the end of the day. I discover later that I am somewhere around 45th place in chips. Feels just like an online guarantee MTT now...

When I left I saw 305 left, but I'll later discover we'll start the day just 30 from the money.

Event 56 - The Hand

Ok few readers, here is "the" single hand from Event 56 where I played a huge pot without the benefit of hindsight. Since it was such and important hand in my run (and has been nagging me for 3 days now), I am going to spew it out for your review and possible condemnation.

Setting the stage: I have spent the better half of this year trying to change my game from a "READ" based game to more of an ”Ed Miller” Frequency based game. Despite playing 10 years (or because of it) it has taken a while for "playing against ranges" to sink in... I spent the days before the event re-reading 1% cover to cover, listening to the strategy sections of thinkingpoker for the last 6 months and some coaching from TPE pro DannyN13.
All this leads to event 56, the $1500 NL event.

The Villain: I had a very low table number, so I had the luxury of really studying my opponents. By the time the dinner break comes up, I know Villain (in the 7 seat) is a cash game player, from NY but now lives in Las Vegas. He plays very frequently and is not afraid to fire a turn after betting a flop. He has accumulated the biggest stack at the table, but in the last hour has been a bit spewy, paying off hands in marginal spots. He would also flat which a wide range of suited hands from position.

The Hero: I am in the 2 seat and will be the effective stack at about $21k. (35 BB). Earlier in the day, I played 1 hand very passively against him, raising pre-flop, and then check folding a no-equity flop. I don't like to do this, but it was early, I didn't have a ton of info yet, and I had nothing good to hope for in a turn card. Chips wise, I had $17k a short while ago, but I button raised and the SB shorty shoved his 10 BB and I was “forced” to call with QTs. He tabled K7, but I came out on top. Other than this small opening error, I have been less volatile than most other players, preferring to build my stack slowly.

The Hand: Folds to me Utg+1 and I look down at AA. I take my time and raise to 1500. Folds around to the villain, who flats on the button. Blinds fold. Pot is about 4500 with antes.

Range determination #1: WIDE. He might not be doing this with any two suited, but I certainly expect to see any pairs below JJ, any suited connector (even 23 perhaps), maybe a good number of suited 1 gappers (he won a big hand with 97s in a similar spot earlier in the day), and any 2 Broadway.


The Flop: KJT rainbow. I pause to think about what to do here. I briefly consider checking. Villain would bet 95% of the time if I did. I decided I would rather retain control the betting and fired out a C-bet of 1500. (I had not decided yet how big of a pot I wanted to play yet..)


Villain now Raises to 4500... I start narrowing his range fast. I spend a small amount of time thinking about he might have. Based on the raise, I tend to think he has a Q, but not AQ as I have two blockers (Andrew really hammered this concept home to me).
Range Determination #2: I narrow his range a bit to include sets, hands with Qs (most any but AQ) and maybe 99 turned into a bluff. I drop lower pairs and lower suited connectors from his range now.

commentary before next action?

I feel like I have way too much equity to fold here, so I call.

Pot is now 13500 and the turn is the rainbow 2. I decide that I want to verify my ranges by NOT betting. Let me explain... I am expecting that if he has solid showdown value he will check back. My logic is that he can't know I don't have AQ and just flopped the nuts. I certainly would play AQ just like this up to this point and would sometimes check AQ here to induce a bet.

PAUSE for dramatic effect...

So I do check and he makes a bet of 7500. I tried not to look surprised, but I was ... and at the same time I wasn't. I expected he was used to being the one applying pressure based on his play style all day.

When he bets here, I feel he must have a Q and thus I could narrow his range to 4 hands: KQ, QJ, QT, or Q9. I have about $17500 behind and the pot is 21k.

Agree? Next Action?

Outcome: I found it hard to release this hand here. In hindsight, I see that I could have weighted Q9 stronger, but still wasnt a believer. As I sit there, thoughts swirling in my head about playing with $17k left, all I can think is why isn't Villain afraid of AQ? I am trying hard to play vs. the 4 or so hands I think he can now vs. trying to "guess" an exact hand... and I cant get the lack of concern from Villain out of my mind.


After about a minute in the tank, I shove and he calls and tables KJs. But the river is a second 2 and I rake a huge pot.

I can’t help but say to the table, "How do I not put him on KQ there?" Reg in 1 seat says, "I thought he had you beat" so I can’t just assume I didn’t get donk-lucky.

Help me understand how I could have played it better. Was this a fold at any point?
(I dont feel like at any point I was married to the hand just because it was AA.)

Event 56

More on this shortly...

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

WSOP Event 29 recap

Drew table 5, so I got to stay put until the level 7... more on that later.

My table:

Seat 1: Clearly a REC player, easy to follow
Seat 2: Was not sure about this guy. Sometimes REG sometimes not. Always gave me credit for the nuts, which was weird.
Sear 3: Hero
Seat 4: REC player, clearly bad.
Seat 5: Rounder, in Vegas for the month.
Seat 6:
Seat 7:
Seat 8: REC Tell-Box. Leaned forward or crossed arms all the time. Very TAG.
Seat 9: empty for now
Seat 10:

Highlights (actually low-lights in hindsight):

Seat 5 comes to the table late in level 1... Is immediately dealt AK, K high flop, and he gets THREE streets of value from a REC with middle pair. Not a full rotation later, gets paid off with KK. He's is an hour late and already has 14k in chips.

Seat 2 plays too many hands (although never showed down garbage), and gets most of his stack destroyed with middle set vs. top set (against Tell-Box). He then shoves 88 and doubles up on the very next hand. Two hands later doubles through with AJ, where the other player didn't realize that after doubling up, he had close to 7k in chips. Seat 2 now has 15k in chips.

Me, I had not a single pocket pair through mid-level 4. Here is the summary of my playable hands:

Level 4:
55 on the button. Call a raise and cold caller. Flop hits set. Despite there being 5 players in the pot, a small bet gets 4 folds.
AA on the button vs. the blinds. no action.
AK twice. Once hits a King, one whiffed. Both c-bet and both ended pretty quickly after the flop.

9Ts vs. seat 2. I flop Top pair and call a c-bet. The turn is a Q and the board is scary. He checks, and I check behind. River is a 9. I recall the board as 73TQ9. When he checks, I bet for value. I think he is really weak here. He verbally gave me credit for 68 and folded.

Last hand of level 4. AA against seat 2 on a King high flop. I c-bat and he calls. turn is a Q and I check. He bets here 100% of the time. He bets $2k and I have $6k behind leaving a pot size shove. He folds.

I played about 10 hands in level 4, and ended the level at about 13k in chips at the 100/200 level.

Level 5-6: I see 88 four times. All four times in a bad spot. After a raise, utg, etc. I either had to fold them pre-flop or fold on the flop to big action.
I also see a large run of hands containing a 2. Really long. I thus bleed chips in level 6 pretty badly. Folding and folding and folding. In levels 5-6, I had about 9 playable hands, hit zero flops. Took down a hand or two with a c-bet and that is it.

Level 7 brings Joe Cada to the 10 seat and someone he knows to the 1 seat. The tournament shifts to 9 handed and I am the BB and moved to another table. 3 of the players at the new table have monster 100k stacks. I shove in the SB with 78s. The BB wakes up with TT and snap calls. I flop a flush, but he flopped a set. The river pairs and I am done.

I did break my streak of epic bad luck this year. In all the prior year's visit, I went out on a coin flip. But not just any flip, but my only flip. That's right, I have lost every coin flip ever at the WSOP. But this year, I never even managed to get into a flip. Perhaps that will change my luck for Event 59.

Sunday, June 05, 2016

WSOP 2016 schedule announced

My thoughts going into another WSOP season. of note: I skipped last year as -EV for me.

My backlog of work
I have about 3.5 hours of coaching, hours of videos and some proactive to get in before June.

Ranges by stack size and pre-determine reactions
Dont open to lose a pot
Rep hand based on action
What are you doing and why?

Need to be opening looser when over 40 BB (pairs, suited broadway, good Axs hands, 89s+) [can still open/fold]
ISO wider up to 10 BB opponents
Induce range is 12-18 BB (less than that, shove). [note: still doing 12-15]
I AM LOSING VALUE instead of trying to play Equity poker. RANGE THEM! (play vs range)
Stop ripping AK when >30 BB. less than 12? 12-20 induce?

3bet more : ~10% of hands (vs. <5%) light 3-bets help image, can help range flatting villains easier, dont always need to make a hand to win. have to work at being >40BB
(its OK, even good to showdown weak hands)
stop playing OOP with 40+ BB
what am I selling? (repping) vs what is he repping?
you really need to be folding to check raises and river bets when deep or pre-ante
you're sloppy!!! Tighten it down! stop calling off when beat, making sloppy bets
be very tight pre-ante.
I leave too much money on the table! I am still not reading during the hand vs. in hindsight. START RANGING AS SOON AS THEY ENTER THE POT. pay attention to their stack size!!
take lines vs. stack size! Dont be afraid of someone with <20 shoving on you when you have 50+, those are your gambling chips! find the max value. find the correct line. Focus on playing my best and throw the rest out.

It always sucks flatting OOP.
Open up the throttle with a STACK (50+), mix in some light 3 bets.

go back to difficult spots and run equity calculator.
rip the middle pairs from MP with 15BB, but look at stacks first.
Dont miss an opportunity to win a big-ass pot.
Pound away at guys, but dont call off with a stack.
there is no edge in a guess.
feel more comfortable with the hand if you are ahead.
stop playing post-ante multi-way pots.

Sunday Online

Got the ska station rolling on Pandora, MTTs racked up, and getting some practice for the upcoming WSOP events...

Monday, April 11, 2016

The unbearable pain of coming close

I'll just post the hands I played over the weekend that contributed to me coming close, but being unable to really cash...

Hero UtG with AA in level 100/200. Effective Stack is about $9k
Open for 525.
folds to the blinds, who both flat.
pot if $1575
Flop is 2d5s6s.
The blinds both check and I make a C-bet of $700
SB folds, BB check raises to $3k

I thought this was a easy fold this early. Villain later claims to have had air and did it because he put me in AK. I guess I find that hard to believe, but it doesnt change my mind on his check-raise range here this deep. I expect it to be a set pretty close to 100% of the time. I don't expect to see Axs,but perhaps he overplayed As3/4s. Still think set most likely this deep.

In retrospect, happy with the fold here...

Level 300/600?
Player opens ($1500?) and I call from blind with AJs. Mine is the effective stack of 22BB.
flop 4d2dJd
I check, he bets $1500, I call.
Turn is the 4s and he fires again for $1500.
I fold. I cant quite put my finger on why I played the hand like this. I was suspicious the whole way, but especially when he fired that turn.

(He had QQ)

Prior to hand 3, I check raised two hands at the table. Both were big pots, both times I had air but was rep'g QQ. Both times the villain folded.
After the first big bluff, the VERY NEXT HAND. I call an all-in from a short stack that had about the amount I just won left. TT vs. AJ race and I lost. So back to the drawing board.
Second big bluff, the flop was J55 and I check raised all-in. Villain claims he laid down a J so I told him I had QQ. But I really had a ton of air.

Then hand 3 comes up...


Late stages. 20 BB 1k/2k/100
open Raise QJ to 5500, BB calls.
Flop is 9TJ and he leads for 8k.
Do you raise or flat here and why?

I raised to $21k and he folded, but not really happy with the result. I think I should flat here and let him bet the turn?


very late stages. effective (me) is 14BB at 3k/6k/500 (about $85k in chips).
I open with QJs for to steal the blinds, blinds both call.
flop is 544. all check
turn is a Q.
SB fires out for $45k into a pot of $45k. (BB folds)

I am kicking myself all day here. He had somewhat advertised earlier (not sure he knows that) about his bet sizing tell. He get greedy (over bets) with his big hands.
When he bets pot here, I should smell the 4... (he had 34s). But because of the late stages and how I dont put the 4 in his range (or did I just glaze over), I go broke here.

So stupid? I think so. I missed a signal that I just could not afford to miss.

91 runners, paid 10 places, finished 20th.

Monday, January 11, 2016

repping a range

Got into an "argument" with a player on the "correct" way to play a hand over the weekend. I had exactly 10 BB in a 4 table MTT with 2 tables left. We are 6 handed. Fold to me in the cutoff and I have ATo. I decide to raise instead of shove. The Button reshoves and knowing what I believe his range is, I call. He shows A9s.

Now, after getting "free advice" which I actually did appreciate. I dont take it personally and I like to discuss hands. I said 10 BB was on the line for me, normally I would shove. But I felt that I wanted a less polarized range at 10BB. I am not shoving AA or KK here. (although I was again in disagreement with others on that) and I believe that ATo with 3 to act folds out most holdings. Yes, I pick up the antes and blinds taking me to 12.5BB, but there just are not as many opportunities live as there are online (where I agree that I would shove this 90+% of the time). So I opted to trade variance for upside.

Perhaps I am trying to justify my thinking, but I wonder what range I want to have to open with 10 BB or its shove only?

on another topic:

I am experimenting with playing my hand with an "alternate holding" to try and balance ranges. So if I have KQs, I pretend I also have like 66 and try to play the hand so that the line makes sense for both. I dont know if I am making things easier, harder, or stupid-er, but that's why its an experiment!

Tuesday, December 15, 2015


Ok, I'll admit it. I've been tied up with life. (And fallout) but I've always been a fan of the X's and O's of the NFL. I was reading a rather large and complex article breaking down a SINGLE PLAY and it dawns on me that poker is getting close to this. You cant "solve" and MTT (although there are claims of SnGs being solved), but you can put together a master playbook based on the NFL equivalent of "package plays". As a matter of fact, these decision trees are already what most pros use when explaining poker to students. But the student has to absorb it through playing hours. Video and other article studying help, but that is much slower than a playbook.

I think my new goal needs to be playbook oriented if I want to make that final leap forward.

Just like with "downs" and "to go" you have stack sizes that tell you what you need to accomplish with your next hand. Deep, 20 BB, or Shallow along with field size (not a universal consensus on this attribute) and position for the hand. I theory, I could construct ranges for these scenarios, then have route tree action denoted. For example only:

I have 20 BB and I am UtG+1 with a fold from UtG. I have KQs. This is a really tough spot. Many just throw it away, other say to play it (confident in their post play ability they will state). But you could have a "package play" for this scenario. I can min raise open, taking me to 18 BB. But if I am three bet to 4 BB and I call, I have 16 BB left and I am OOP. But let's say for the sake of the example I want KQs in my range here. Ok, what are my post flop options. Yes, there are close to an infinite flop combinations. BUT, not infinite TYPES of flops. There is an Ace board, hitting the K or Q coordinated or uncoordinated making top pair, 3 under cards, 0-3 diamonds, and paired combos like 55J. If you could construct actions for each of these, it seems easy to modify them for the majority of the remaining flops. If I have 16 BB left, I dont really want to go broke on a bluff, but if I open EP and get a 55J flop, should I be ready to go to the wall? (Yes, I know it depends on the opponent, but bear with me.) So my C-bet is 3BB (75%) and I get called. So the pot is 14 BB and I have 13 BB behind. I can check turn shove river, or I can shove turn, or I can check fold. In a package play, it would depend on the read of the defense, but in this case, you would be readying the turn card and the overall board/hand to date. Does a blank help me? What does the call mean? Really hard to know... You are repping some pocket pair if you bet a blank turn. You are repping getting lucky if the turn is a broadway card.

I think the more credible play is shoving the blank? And yes, if opponents stack size is 1000 BB, I get called. Sure. But MOST of the time, its going to be in a similar range size.