Saturday, February 25, 2006

I am Jack's inflamed sense of rejection

Last night I played in a chaotic rebuy tournament. I felt obligated to make questionable calls during the rebuy in order to attempt to not get short stacked. Despite my efforts, I went into the add-on period with less than the starting stack size and this after TWO rebuys.

So, I am 1/2 of average and the game is just starting... But I am a pretty not-awful player. I start accumulating information on players. Mostly who plays TPBK (top pair bad kicker) too hard after the rebuys have stopped. Each time I have a hand, I am in. But I RARELY had a hand. As a matter of fact, playing solid was killing me...

I am Jack's futile response...

I manage now to get involed in two big hands where I actaully figure out I am behind. But I pull the rip cord and escape. But to what end? I could not afford to be right. What I needed was to play loose and get lucky. Yeah right. That just is not my nature and not my style. So, despite not having chips, and needing to win hands, I survive elimination not once but twice by escaping on a good read.

I realize at this point though, that my reads invovled basic knowledge. I am not playing the players very well, just their tendancies. I dont "read" people well, just study their patterns. It works in tournaments, but in cash games, I am often the sucker at the table.

I am short stacked but coming back. The blinds are going up, but I still have an M of about 15 despite my Q of .6. UtG limps, button raises to 3xBB. So, not wanted to get caught drawing out of position, I fold JTs in the SB. Good play or bad? Well, 95% of the time its a good play. But this time the button had 56s and the flop is 789. That's right, my miracle flop and I was not even in the hand. He doubled up on that hand. I probably would have tripled up.

I am Jack's raging bile duct.

But, remember the TPBK guys? Well, now there are 14 players left and I now have an AVERAGE chip stack (for 10 minutes). That's right, they doubled my up not once, but TWICE playing horrible hands. But I am playing too solid to keep up with the the
lag-jones'. Despite my concenrs, my Q is .9 and I am not worried. Fast forward and there are SEVEN left (including your humble narrator) with 3 short stacks (including your truly again) and paying 5. So, intent on making sure I DONT miss the money, I am TIGHT... But I know I need to switch it up here to not be a victim. But an observation keeps me in check.

I note that the remaining players will STILL pay off made hands. GEZ. So, ok tight it is. Lots of flops, few turns. Then I am in the SB again. Limper early, button raises to 25k which is 5xBB. BUT, I know he likes to button steal and will do it with even a connector like J9. So, I look down at AQs and have a decision. Or do I? Can I get a better opportunity? I mean I only have 11BB left anyways. the blinds are SO high, I have to take a shot. And I expect I am ahead. I push all in and the limper folds. The raiser goes into the tank and then says he's priced in. (not sure of that, but he is NOT a short stack). He calls with 9T. The flop is 678. (Yes, really). I am out. Out of the money, out of luck.

I am Jack's lost hopes and dreams...

Then I get talked into a cash side game. I am doing pretty well. We are short handed and there are some rounds of Omaha H/L, which I am pretty good at. I am up about 20% and I am in the cutoff with A9s (NLHE). I raise and get two callers (half the table in the hand). I like my odds. When the flop comes AQ9 rainbow I am exstatic. But when it rains... Check, Check, I bet. The turn is a ten. Check, check. I dont like the T as it opens up nasty possible hands. I bet the pot to drive out draws and get one caller. The river is another Queen. He checks. I am in position and my two pair is cheated. I have half my stack in a hand and I could just check. But, I expect this is a split pot and I figure I may get him to fold. So I bet into the made straight. KJ. One of the few times I realize I can make a value bet and its the time I should not. What did I think he was chasing with, TP? Probably. I had no good read and I just plain wanted to win a big hand for once. Instead I created one. Why did he check? I read this as the weakness. And I was right, he was NOT slow playing. He was worried about me having the boat. So he checked and I drew up the wrong conclusion.

I am Jack's failure to communicate...

Ironic component to this post? I DID just buy new chairs for our kitchen table earlier this week. At least, despite everything else, I have those kitchen chairs taken care of...

Thursday, February 23, 2006

slip sliding away...

Lost my weekend profits on TWO hands. Two hands I am PROUD of. How often does that happen?

I play AA so well, I get a guy betting into me with KJ when the flop is K98. He thinks he is ahead! On the turn a 3 comes and he is still betting. I have 80% of his money in the pot and the river is a Jack. He moves all-in for his last 20%. It was a surreal moment, because just before the turn I thought of the one card I did NOT want to see, the jack. I make the crying call to see KJ. "I think I have to call" I said. He kept asking me what I meant. He NEVER knew, even after the showdown, that he was behind.

The second hand was a boat running into quads. I have always said, I will not lay down for the monster that is quads. If someone has it, I am going to pay it off. That is a profitable philosophy. But it did not work out today.

Monday, February 20, 2006

weekend ring game lessons

Well, in the donkey invitational I have made up some lost ground and I am now sitting at -25% EV. Why the improvement? Cash games. Had I learned the following 2 lessions earlier I would be sitting in an even better position:

1. Why can't people fold vs. a short stack when it appears they are behind?
I see this in tournaments too, but its as if because he cant take ALL of our stack, its ok to call when we may be behind. It isnt.

2. Why do we call big river bets?
In HE, big river bets come from STRONG hands. Sure, there is the Occasional bluff. Occasional. But mostly a BIG river bet is trying to get paid off for chasing. If you call it, then you are making a negative EV play. Stop it. Unless its me, then dont stop it :)

Friday, February 17, 2006

What is a precipice?

And how do I know if I am standing at one? Well, when you can play decent poker, know what your doing, and still the big wins elude you... but you look back over the last 60 days and think you are still improving...

How? Not sure... Or am I? I have started to absorb things at the tables that are required for winning.

#1. Attitude. You have to be willing to pull the trigger on a move that is right MOST of the time, even knowing that this might be "the wrong move at the right time". That includes understanding when to take a 55%/45% advantage to the freaking wall.

#2. Understanding when its right to win a hand, and when its right to "lead your opponent" down the primrose path. (Very difficult)

#3. Knowing that you play VASTLY different at the beginning of an SnG vs.a large field tournament. So many people say they know the difference, but their play demonstrates otherwise.

#4. Appreciating your play when you get your money in ahead, AS THE AGGRESSOR, Regardless of the outcome.

These are have down pat. Now I have to add the most important one of them all.

5 thru infinity. Every decision you make is for a reason and has long standing ramifications. There are no arbitrary decisions for a winning player.

I can talk about points 5a-5whatever because this is the next level of poker. What should I do? What does my opponent WANT me to do? Am I doing the opposite of what my opponent wishes me to do? Am I playing the opposite style of what the table is comfortable with? If I am, then I am winning the war regardless of the battle results. (If he wants me to call and I fold, chances are I am better off for it. there are always exceptions, your millage may vary).

But decisions do not come from a book, nor do they come from experience, they come from a comprehensive understanding of the current state of affairs. From the simple (my cards) to the abstract (I lost 3 big hands to this guy when we last played 6 months ago, does he remember that? Is he playing this hand based on that recollection?) Then making a decision based on winning the WAR. The War, not the battle. Winning the battle is good. Sure. But no one wins a war without losing battles. And when you lose a battle, USE that and its circumstances to impove you edge in the stratgic arena.

So I undertstand all of this, why is it not working? Its simple, but ellusive. Its easy to think about it after the fact. But while you are sitting down at a table (online or not) for 3-4 long hours, 80% of which is long stretches of nothings (sic), its hard to understand that the current hand is yet another peice of the puzzle -and you need the peices. Desperately. And when you are short stacked and in 500th place, its hard to focus on anything but "I am all in next big hand". But even so, you have to think about how you got there, how you can repair what leaks got you there, and that someone will have to pry the last chip out of your cold dead hand AS A DOG, because I got my money in while I was ahead again! Because that is what I do. See #1.

Questions we need to ask ourselves DURING a hand before we act:
1. Am I ahead? (I dont mean we have to BE ahead, but we must KNOW)
2. Is this the "pressure point"?
3. Do any other circumstances dictate how I should play this hand?

then we need to act:
1. does my act heed me an advantage?
2. Do I act in full understanding of risk/reward?
3. Am I acting the way I would recommend someone else act if I was watching and not worried about my chips?

Better late than not at all


from the
LA PokerClassic

Commerce Casino

Tuesday, February 14, 2006

double shootout at the OK Coral

And no, its not a Dick Cheney pun.

I played in a double shootout last night. I like this format for 2 reasons.

1. Only 64 entries.
2. I play a mean SnG.

So, here is my "schedule" now.
Sunday : Big field lotto tournaments.
Monday : SnGs and Shootouts.
Tuesday : mid range (100ish players) tournament
Wednesday : league night once a month (live play! woot!) or online splahsing.
Thursday: PLO
Friday/Sat : Cash ring games

So, I played in the double shootout and immediately switched into SnG mode. The difference between big fields are:

1. You are more tight than you are in big fields as you rarely will get donkeys calling big bets with bottom pair or wild draws.
2. Survival is much more important than chip accumulation.

My strategy is the shootout is that at the first table, I dont want to start "pushing" until there are 3 left. Before then, I am focusing on seeing flops and making better decisions than my opponent. I will almost always make it to the top three. Then I have to outplay, outwit, and out-luckbox.

On the final table, I loosen up my pre-flop raises from position to take advantage of the tightness.

I had maneuverd myself down to the final four. I was the short stack. 15 minutes later, we are stillat four, but I am the chip leader.

I would have easily won the whole thing had it not been for not two, but THREE back-back-back suckouts. The worst one, the one where I am about to knock out 4th place and coast was the hardest to take. Even though I am not really ahead by that much, I caught a short stack on a STONE COLD J6o blush/suicide steal and picked him off.
*** FLOP *** [Tc Ks 6d]
*** TURN *** [Tc Ks 6d] [Th]
*** RIVER *** [Tc Ks 6d Th] [3h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
suicide player: shows [6s Jc] (two pair, Tens and Sixes)
Columbo777: shows [Ac 9c] (a pair of Tens)

I went downhere from here. Including a brutal cracking of QQ by again J6o. He made a ONE CARD STRAIGHT. Worse yet, I got his money in when he was a huge dog.

I always say that I am never upset when I play better and lose. But this one was hard to take. Again I would have busted 4th place and been the undisputed chip leader. Instead it was uphill again.

I eventually went out when my AKs raced against 44, who turned trips on the river. Not a bad beat, just had to get my money in pre-flop with the short stack and hope to beat a small pair. I did not. So despite playing a superior game, it all came down to losing a race. Argh.

Friday, February 10, 2006

the thinking mans game

Wanna feel smart, then watch me be stupid and feel superior.

I am playing in a 50 person tournament and we are down to about 18. I have an avg stack, but we are at shorthanded tables. I find myself playing 6 handed. I am alternating aggressive and tight, because two others are being aggressive also. Then I get JJ under the gun. I get cute and limp. Only the BB calls (checks). Then flop is A66

I know he is aggressive, but throws me when he makes a 1.5 times pot bet. I notice he only has another .35 left after that, so he is committed. Why? My logic is that he has an Ace with a weak kicker and because of that I fold.

But now I have lots of time to think about it. And think about it. and think about it. And then realize I made a BIG mistake. First of all, I played like am amateur crane. Stuck my neck out and withdrew at the first sign of resistance. But secondly, I failed to review "my story". "My story" is what the other player must conclude about your hand based on how you played it to this point. My story on this hand was a SMALL pocket pair. I have a BIG pocket pair. If you are going to get cute with this hand, then you need to follow through. I did not. Instead I played the hand exactly like it WAS a small pair, like an idiot I might add.

At the end of the night I asked him about the hand. "10 10" he said proudly, "I knew you didn't have and Ace and could not call the bet." Well, he was half right.

"Learning all da'time" -Benny Hill (as a sex crazed foreigner pretending to not understand his obviosuly perverse actions)

Thursday, February 09, 2006

My last 2 tournaments

One online, one live. Eerily similar. In the live one, I bubbled out.

My online tournament Tuesday night:
99 players

First hand (digging a hole)
Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20)
Table '19343704 13' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: patrickjst (1500 in chips)
Seat 3: Columbo777 (1500 in chips)
Seat 4: bluegillchow (1500 in chips)
Seat 5: Wil (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: Shaper99 (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: Slimeface (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: nys1emt (1500 in chips)
Columbo777: posts small blind 10
bluegillchow: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Columbo777 [Td 4s]
Wil : folds
Shaper99: folds
Slimeface: folds
nys1emt: folds
patrickjst said, "ut"
patrickjst: folds
Columbo777: raises 20 to 40
bluegillchow: calls 20
*** FLOP *** [4d 8h 2h]
Columbo777: bets 60
bluegillchow: calls 60
*** TURN *** [4d 8h 2h] [5d]
Garthmeister is connected
Columbo777: bets 120
bluegillchow: calls 120 < = NOW I am worried. TWO smooth calls with only draws out there?
*** RIVER *** [4d 8h 2h 5d] [3s]
Columbo777: checks
bluegillchow: bets 200
Columbo777 said, "river?"
Did he MISS a flush draw, make a straight draw, or just out play me from position?
Its TOO early (first hand) to lose this big of a pot. ARGH.
Columbo777: folds
bluegillchow collected 440 from pot
bluegillchow: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 440
Board [4d 8h 2h 5d 3s]
Seat 3: Columbo777 (small blind) folded on the River
What was he calling with??? AK? 2 hearts? A straight draw?

I win a hand with trips
I win a hand with a straight
I win a hand when Wil plays TP too weak because of his bad kicker and he makes 2 pair on the river. But the same card made me a set.
I win a hand with TP and have built myself back up to just above avg.
I pick up more small pots with pairs
I pick up a big pot with a better 2 pair.
Then I get raised when I have AJ in the SB. I reraise, get called, but hit the Ace. When I bet, he folds. I am now a chip leader…
I am only playing in position now. I win another big hand with AJ on a flop of QJ6. He tried to push my off from out of position and the re-raised forced him to fold. I am the chip leader.
So, how do I play now? I want to be patient (there are still a lot of players left), I want to play from position, and I don’t want to make marginal decisions against other large stacks.

Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: louddwnunder (4380 in chips)
Seat 2: Longshot1999 (1030 in chips)
Seat 3: cfinnn (2955 in chips)
Seat 4: InanimateJ (1455 in chips)
Seat 5: BigSlickNut (1270 in chips)
Seat 6: phluxer (2615 in chips)
Seat 8: Gilain (1365 in chips)
Seat 9: Columbo777 (4185 in chips)
louddwnunder: posts small blind 50
Longshot1999: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Columbo777 [Kc Ks] On the button, no less. This is my THIRD KK, the other two paid off very little as I did not try to get cute with them.

cfinnn: raises 200 to 300 < normal raise, could be any good starting hand
InanimateJ: folds
BigSlickNut: folds
phluxer: raises 2315 to 2615 and is all-in < note that he is all-in and is not reraising here. That indicates to me that he has QQ or JJ, not AA.
Gilain: folds
Columbo777: calls 2615 < I think I am ahead here.
louddwnunder: folds
Longshot1999: folds
cfinnn: folds
phluxer shows 99. < = I am a 5 to 1 favorite!

*** FLOP *** [9c 6d 3s]
Columbo777 said, "noooooooooo"

All my work, down the tubes. But even post flop, I would have gotten my money in here.
I am back at starting stack size and have a Q of .8

I work my way back up to average over the next 30 minutes.

I then get all my money in here:
Table '19343704 4' Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: DakotaKen (6515 in chips)
Seat 2: Trekgal (7930 in chips)
Seat 3: thebrux (3130 in chips)
Seat 4: peacecorn (4225 in chips)
Seat 5: Columbo777 (2450 in chips)
Seat 6: SERNE (5625 in chips)
Seat 8: kaellinn18 (6695 in chips)
Seat 9: Joanne1111 (1420 in chips)
kaellinn18: posts small blind 100
Joanne1111: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Columbo777 [Ad As]
DakotaKen: folds
Trekgal: folds
thebrux: raises 400 to 600
peacecorn: folds
Arcon is connected
Columbo777: raises 400 to 1000
SERNE: folds
kaellinn18: folds
Joanne1111: folds
thebrux: calls 400
*** FLOP *** [5h 5s 5c]
thebrux: bets 2130 and is all-in < = there is NO way I put him on a 5 here when he calls the pre-flop re-raise. NO WAY. THIS IS AN EASY CALL.
Columbo777: calls 1450 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [5h 5s 5c] [Js]
*** RIVER *** [5h 5s 5c Js] [7c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
thebrux: shows [Ah Th] (three of a kind, Fives) [bluff?]
Columbo777: shows [Ad As] (a full house, Fives full of Aces)
Columbo777 collected 5200 from pot

I am above avg. again!!!

I end up bleeding for a while with bad hands and then lost another 700 on trying to defend my SB with 9T. Then I took a stab at the pot, only to find out I was going to get played back at.

Seat #7 is the button
Ante 25
small blind 100
posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Columbo777 [Jd Ac]
*** FLOP *** [7d Qd Ah]
Columbo777: bets 200
23skidoo: raises 600 to 800
Columbo777: raises 1825 to 2625 and is all-in
23skidoo: calls 1825
*** TURN *** [7d Qd Ah] [8c]
*** RIVER *** [7d Qd Ah 8c] [Th]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Columbo777: shows [Jd Ac] (a pair of Aces)
23skidoo: shows [Qc Jc] (a pair of Queens)
Columbo777 collected 6975 from pot

So now I am back in action. So what happened???

I call an all-in from the BB who had A4 and hit the Ace on the flop. Ooof.
I still have 5600 though…

Again, I take a stab at a pot, this time a blind steal. Once again, picked off.

I am below average, so I need to play short stack strategy again…

Seat #5 is the button
Seat 5: Columbo777 (4654 in chips)
posts the ante 25
small blind 200 (guy who picked me off BOTH times)
big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Columbo777 [Qs Jd]
All fold to ME
Columbo777: raises 800 to 1200
SERNE: raises 15501 to 16701 and is all-in FROM THE FREAKING SB no less
Columbo777: calls 3429 and is all-in
I see his KK. I expected A2o.
Columbo777 said, "gea" < =sort of a noise?
*** FLOP *** [4h 6s 2d]
*** TURN *** [4h 6s 2d] [Js]
Columbo777 said, "nice" < = screaming though
*** RIVER *** [4h 6s 2d Js] [2h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
SERNE: shows [Kd Kc] (two pair, Kings and Deuces)
Columbo777: shows [Qs Jd] (two pair, Jacks and Deuces)

Did I really play badly???
I think I finished about 20th / 99.

Wednesday, February 08, 2006

What's wrong with PRESSURE in PLO?

I got into an interesting argument, er discussion, yesterday on a very interesting PLO hand. She said the hero played too agressive with a non-nut hand in low stakes PLO. I totally disagreed. But, she had a very good viewpoint and is more experienced in PLO than I am. But I still dont see it...

Omaha Pot Limit ($0.10/$0.25) [low stakes CASH game]
Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: ($28.20 in chips)
Seat 2: HERO ($23.90 in chips)
Seat 3: deabter #1 ($21.65 in chips)
Seat 4: ($9.50 in chips)
Seat 5: Columbo777 (debater #2) ($19.50 in chips)
Seat 6: ($4.25 in chips)
Seat 7: ($19.45 in chips)
Seat 8: ($30 in chips)
Seat 9: ($26 in chips)
HERO: posts big blind $0.25
seat 3: calls $0.25
seat4 $0.25
seat 5 calls $0.25
Seat 6: folds
seat 7: calls $0.25
seat 8: folds
seat 9: folds
SB: calls $0.15
HERO in BB: checks
So far, pretty typical.

*** FLOP *** [Tc 7c 9c]
SB: checks
HERO: bets $1.45
debater #1: folds
Columbo777 said, "hmmm". I actually typed this (which is bad form in the middle of the hand unless its my turn to act. I was NEXT to act, and hit ENTER to soon. oops) Our HERO is building a pot on a flush board. There is no way he does this with a set, he OBVIOUSLY has a made flush. In Omaha, the tight play Ace high flushes, the aggresive will play K high flushes.

seat 4: raises $1.45 to $2.90 <= but look at this. What does HE have then? It SHOULD be yet another flush. But only one can be a nut flush.

Columbo777: folds
seat 7: folds
Columbo777 said, "oh" <= I know on the re-raise that this hand was going to war.
SB: folds
HERO: raises $7.25 to $10.15 <= this is heads up now, and looks like a battle of flushes. But what if our caller just is out of his league? Maybe he flopped a straight and thought he could get a lame flush to fold?

Seat 4: calls $6.35 and is all-in

Now, let suppose our Hero has the Ace flush. Then this is just a plain old PLO hand where someone called off their stack without understanding the game. Right? Or is it that simple?
IF Seat 4 is willing to call off his stack with a non-but hand, then isnt our HERO justified in making this play with a NON-nut KING flush? The other play would have to have to only hand that can beat this one, or he is CHASING and we are getting his money in before he realizes how far behind he is. This is my FAVORITE part of Omaha, catching a playing think they have outs, when they really dont. I mean, what could be seat 4's redraw here? He would have to have trips or 2 pair, in which case, he is a dog.

*** TURN *** [Tc 7c 9c] [5d]
*** RIVER *** [Tc 7c 9c 5d] [Ah]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
HERO: shows [8c Kc 5s Ad] (a flush, King high)
Seat 4: mucks hand (WE CAN ONLY GUESS)
Columbo777 said, "nh"
HERO collected $19.05 from pot

Now debater #1 states that our Hero made a mistake building a big pot with a K flush. So my point is this: Why assume that there is a AcXc out there? So our hero has his real decision on the post flop re-raise. It is at this point that he must decide if he is going to see the showdown or not. He decides yes (there is no real folding equity here, he is way ahead or way behind). Calling would be pointless as you are not going to call down a hand in PLO. Its all about pot building. If you call, what are you going to do on the turn? Check? And if he bets, you are going to call again?

I certainly believe that you give yourself additional chances to get away from the hand if you call and then see what he does on the turn. But you are out of position and this has to be cause for concern. So, he makes the read that he is ahead and crushes the chaser.

What would debater #1 won with the hand? Or might they have folded if seat 4 made a pot size bet on the turn? Who knows. But I think pushing with a K flush in PLO is right, if the situation presents itself. And I saw this as one of those moments. What do you think?

Sunday, February 05, 2006

no poker, broken toilet

So I did not play poker yesterday. I had a toilet that would fill a tank every 5 minutes and it was driving us crazy. I tried to fix the leak, which lead to a tank, which lead to a toilet. All in all, a wasted saturday. But I did learn to replace a toilet. So now I ask you... Who really cares that I am able to repalce a toilet? Sure, it turned out easier than I thought, and I was intimidated when I started, but in the end I did a fine job. Hmmm, sounds eerily familiar. I wonder if there is an analogy in there somewhere. Oh yes, GO STEELRES!!!

Thursday, February 02, 2006

A Wango, Ze Tango

One of the many hellish cries from Detroit's own Ted Nugent. And it describes how I feel playing this new Hyper-Aggressive style.

PokerStars Tournament
No Limit Hold'emBuy-In: $1.00/$0.10
1814 playersTotal Prize Pool: $1814.00
Dear Columbo777, You finished the tournament in 67th place.
You earned 57.08 tournament leader points in this tournament.

PokerStars Tournament
No Limit Hold'emBuy-In: $0.10
2494 players
Dear Columbo777, You finished the tournament in 86th place.
You earned 29.30 tournament leader points in this tournament.

I have played five tournaments this week using this style. Five tournaments, 4 cashes. In ALL FIVE, I was eventually knocked out by pocket aces. ALL FIVE. The last one was:

I am EP and raise 3xBB with TT. I get a raise from a LP player and it folds around to me again. I think for a while and decide that since I am just over average (and so is he) that if I hit a set, I will take over this tournament. The flop is QdTd3d. A set on a dangerous board. Now, if you put him on a pair or AK, statistically we put him on 0-1 diamonds. IF he has AxAd, he is going to push me hard. So, BEFORE I even bet, I have to decide if I am going to take the chance as a 2 to 1 favorite. Well, there really is no choice. IF I want to accumulate chips, doind so as a 2-1 favorite is justified. I push all in and he calls with AxAd. The turn is a diamond.

I also ran KK in AA on a board of T83 rainbow, and ran TP into AA on the other 3 occasions. Now, obvoiusly there are times that a freakin read of the other player is in order. BUT, so many players out there will call off there stack with mid-pair or a draw, its more profitable to IGNORE trying to read an overpair most of the time (for now). But Mark my words, I will get better at seeing the oncoming truck in the tunnel. And I did blow an escape hatch last night when I felt my TP had run into a set.

Stay tuned...

Wednesday, February 01, 2006

I'm gonna sing the doom song - GIR

When to sing the doom song:
1. When you make a boat and you get blindsided by a wired pair turning quads. You are not going to get away from your boat.

2. Set over set. Anyone who folds a set to a SUSPECTED set is probably your mom.

3. An overpair vs a bigger overpair on a rainbow flop of all under cards.

Let me paint you a picture:

You have a big pocket pair, say KK. There is a 3xBB raise from UtG. You make it 6xBB and the UtG is the only caller. The flop is T82 rainbow. He Checks and you bet out 1/2 the pot. He smooth calls.

Does he have JJ, QQ or AA? You are just never going to know. Why? Because it is incorrect to fold ANY of these hands at this point. The ONLY thing you have to go on is the Check-call which is the SIGNATURE move of the amateur with the big hand. But, he would do that with QQ too thinking he was ahead! So where are you? Going broke, that's where. Sing the doom song.