Sunday, August 08, 2010

Poker's Prisoners Dilemma

You have 8500 in chips and are dealt KK in the BB. The level is 100/200 (antes start next level). With 3 limpers at 200 each, deciding what size raise took me a second thought. In the end, I voted for 1000 (not 1200). First limper folds, second (BUTTON) calls, third folds.

Ok, so the pot is $2500 and you have $7500 behind. Assuming that an Ace does not flop, you are going to lead out a good percentage of the time. The lead would be anywhere from $1000 to $2500 depending on the flop. Standard would be about $1500-$1800.

The flop comes 78Q with 2 spades (My kings are red). My opponent can have a wide range, but based on the limp call on the button, I am going to have trouble putting him on a hand. After thinking that only a Q will call, I decide to bet only $1000. This is light, but in a home game, c-bets and turn bets often fall into bad habits of "same size as last bet" traps, and I figured it would look like that.

After betting the $1k, my opponent raises to $3k. Here now is the dilemma:

You have a strong holding vs. a wide range at an early level. BUT, you have $2k in

Here is my criteria for a fold:
1. Did my opponent take control of a hand? If so, why
2. Did my opponent reach the tipping point first?

In this case, he took control of the hand and yet I cant see him trying to "take it away" on this flop. Especially for that much of his stack. He also reached the tipping point first. Based on criteria, I should have seriously considered a fold. Yet because of stack size, I did not.

I really am thinking about this hard...

10 comments:

Memphis MOJO said...

Standard (lead) would be about $1500-$1800.

So why lead for $1000 then?

columbo (at eifco dot org) said...

I decided that if I bet $1800, then even hands I am beating fold to easily.

Anyway, if I bet $1800 and he makes it $5k, its mostly the same scenario.

diverjoules said...

He easily could have stayed in the AQ and thinks he is good because your same size bet looks weak. You said it yourself "he could have a wide range of hands here'. What was his stack size. You said yours was 7500. Did he have a huge enough chip stack to splash are with a holding of 78? Does he raise/bet with his OESD's? You can beat a lot of his holdings. If he has 77 or 88 in the hole well then he has you. If not you are good (IMO). I think at this point you really need to know what this player is capable of. I shove here, and either go play cash, or chip up nicely.

Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

You cannot seriously consider folding here. You played this hand a bit weak on purpose and successfully disguised the strength of your hand with the small c-bet on the flop as well, and you got exactly what you wanted when someone essentially pushed on you. Your hand is a lot stronger than you have led on and I have to estimate based on my experience that you will be ahead in this spot maybe 97, 98% of the time at least.

Think about it: any Queen plays the hand the way he played it here. Most pocket pairs would play it the same from his perspective given the innocuous-lookng flop. There are also a number of overcard / inside straight / flush draw hands that would also raise that flop, all of which you are solidly ahead of.

You cannot fold here. Ever. It's not close IMO.

columbo (at eifco dot org) said...

I put him on a KQ type hand. He is not a big bluffer and took a flop from position. A set probably waits until the turn to raise, although not always. And AQ probably raises from the button instead of being a second limper. But KQ seemed pretty plausible. He came late, so had $10k starting stack.

columbo (at eifco dot org) said...

Granted, my logic at the time (and I remember specifically) is almost exactly as Hoyazo comments. I had to get the money in here vs. most of his holdings here.

Falstaff said...

Yeah, for once I'm with Hoy. Shove over the top of his happy ass.

TJ Walters said...

A cautious middle pair on the button might call you preflop then raise you on the flop with those two spades showing, especially after the weak lead you put in. He might have you on a semi-bluff with a couple of big spades rather than an over-pair.

Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Wow this Falstaff must suck balls at poker.

columbo (at eifco dot org) said...

I dont think he knew it was a poker discussion! ;)