In my anti-climatic life after Vegas, I am holding it together. But here is dilema of the week:
You are in the early stages of a MTT (50 players) and the blinds are 1/2. You start with 110 chips (weird, I know).
You watch the UTG raise to 10. It folds around to you on the button and you look down at JsQs. Now, it seems to me that this warrents a call based on position and the fact that it is easier to put him on a hand here. In this case, I figure on big cards. The blinds fold.
The flop is Jc9s7s. A GREAT flop for you. Top pair AND a flush draw. But then, the UTG bets out $25. Now I am NOT asking you what YOU would do here. That would be too easy... Listen...
I pick up something. Maybe a tell, maybe a feeling. THAT I AM BEHIND. Now, knowing that a FEELING puts you behind, but the MATH says statistically, you may be ahead post flop, which one do you rely on more?
You CANT call here because you cant afford to sacrifice the folding equity and risk getting pushed off the draw portion of the hand on the turn. (Unless you are going to run a more sophisticated attempt to take the pot away.) So, now based on the information given, what is your move? EMAIL me your responses and I will post them!
2 comments:
Personally, I hate hand histories. There are so many more intanganibles that are not given that are key to poker that hand histories are, in my opinion, virtually useless. Say for example, does this person overvalue hands? What is his/her table image? Does he/she play differently against you? How does this person perceive you? Has this person been running bad recently and is now playing sub-obtimally? I could go on, but you get my point.
Anyway, I'll try to answer your quandary. With your tell, I would estimate that his range is probably this,
JJ+,99,77,AJs,KJs,J9s,AJo,KJo,J9o
and against that range, you are a 56-44 dog in the hand. Of course, it all depends on how much this person thinks is a good hand. If your opponent is a tight player, I might fold this. Against all other players, I'm pushing.
-Wes
ok, Wes. Here is the thing. Its a MTT and its level one. Thus the quandry. We dont know if this player over values hands, or how he sees us, or how he is running. Its level 1 and he's an unknown. Thus the enigmatic value of the question.
You can put him on a range of hands, but then I give you additional information. A 'blink' moment (see book at amazon.com) which tells you he can beat top pair. Nothing more than a feeling.
The question is not about our normal mechanical process of evaluating hands, but whether or not we trust our instincts or our math/knowledge of poker correctness. It sounds like you are putting yourself in the latter category?
If its any solace, I made the same move. The question is more about understanding ourselves, not really about the hand.
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