Sunday, August 10, 2008

I'm stumped

I just cant get a handle on this. I understand beats, but is it a given that in any given tournament, that you can only put your tournament at risk against stacks you have at least twice as many chips as your opponent because eventually a QQ will take down your KK when all the money gets in? If that is the case, how does one GET a 2-1 chip lead if they are unwilling to get all their chips in with a huge edge?

And in a SnG, with 4 left, how do you NOT try to break the 4th place stack with KK? And after losing and now being the short stack, how do you not play 99 against only a BB? What are the odds he not only wakes up with AK, but the flop is AKK?

I just cant see that my play can be altered to adjust for this downturn without sacrificing solid +EV play. So how does on just continue to "take it in the cakes"??

Should I be playing more cash game to adjust for this?


pokerpeaker said...

I don't know where you are with cash games, but I find the beats much less common in those because it's a post-flop game. I prefer them for that very reason. I did lose with KK to AQ last night. Stupid me for getting all the money ahead of time, I guess.

Tournaments, as you know, have an extremely high variance rate.

The only problems with cash games is when you are running band and taking it in the shorts, you can lose a lot of money, as opposed to just a buy-in with tournaments.

carbide said...

You keep taking it in the ass and like it. Or you take a few days off & hopefully it turns. Look at your play, if you playing well keep grinding. I am just ending a 3 day break...1 tourney 2 times I get set over set with the same guy!!! That happened within 10mins of each other. I'm pissed take a day off. Friday night 1 of my WSOP league. 1 hour in Set over set again to a super LAG. That pretty much determined that I'm taking a few days off. Some situations are unavoidable. Quit being results oriented. And as one of my buddies always tells me "it will turn".

matt tag said...

It's tough, I know - you need to look at the long term view. If you're getting your money in with the best hand (KK vs. QQ) 1000 times, you will win 880 of time (roughly). That means you're going to lose 120 of them.

Two things that help me:

1) looking at PokerTracker results. You can see how your KK has done long term.

2) A little note I have posted to my monitor that says "Focus on the Quality of your Decisions".