Tuesday, April 25, 2006

Consequences, Schmonsequences

I CALLED off my stack last night. Are you kidding me? After all this time playing cards, after 2 hours of crawling back from a crippled stack, I CALL off my stack?! Heeeee –f’n –Haaaw

My list of rules that I am going to put on a card, laminate, and then staple to my f’n head so I don’t forget.

1. Don’t eat the peppered beef.
2. Play against the grain.
3. A pair is just a pair (even when its TP or an overpair).
4. Tighten up after level 2.
5. The large the field, the harder you push marginal edges. (also see inverse)
6. Try to see flop from superior position with calling hands if Q > 1 and M>15.
7. Its ok to be a push monkey after the bubble, but not when you are deep stacked.
8. Risk the appropriate amount. (MAKE GOOD DECISION BASED ON M,Q and field size. You need to know where you are while risking the appropriate amount)

Monday, April 24, 2006

Riddle me this, Batman

Today I am going to put forth an interesting Poker riddle:

It is a halfway (90 out) through a 180 MTT. You are in MP with QQ and its folded around to you. You raise to 4xBB-5xBB (some amount slightly larger than 3xBB). The button, thinking for a while, calls. You put him on either A9-AQ or 99-TT. For this sake of argument, lets include KK because he is always cautious with KK.

Lets same this player is TYPICAL. By that he makes logical decisions based on being reasonably solid.

The flop is A65 (rainbow just to simplify the issue).

You are now FTA.

Scenario 1: Your Q is .5 and his is 3. He makes this call knowing that 40% of your stack is committed already.

Scenario 2: Your Q is 1 and his is 1. He makes the call for unknown reasons

Scenario 3: Your Q is 3 and his is .5 and its midway through a MTT

Scenario 4: Same as scenario 2 but he TELLS you before the flop he has AT.

In which scenarios do you Check, which do you Bet, and which do you PUSH?
And if you PUSH in scenario 1, what is your EV? Positive or Negative?

Saturday, April 22, 2006

The ULTIMATE go broke hand

I am in the $4/180 and I am SICK of the limpers. So sick in fact, that from MP I raise it 4xBB with 32s. Not one, but TWO of the limpers call. The flop is A33. Now is there ANY way you can EXPECT to be behind here? That's why I raised. My 3 HAS to be good here. And when the MP player bets, I immediately think, "GREAT! He has TP!!!! Now I can get my money in there and he will call off his stack!"

Turns out, one of the limpers called my 4xBB raise with 43o. How can I put someone on that?

But wait, I am 95% to split here as in order not NOT split, one of us would have to make a ONE CARD FLUSH with four on the board...

IGHN. Are you KIDDING ME? How did this turn into a bad beat story? Sick.

If it weren't for bad luck...

I'd have no luck at all... remember that line from Hee-Haw? But this time, it was *I* who was the donkey. After playing pretty decent ring game poker for an hour, I had 2 pair on a KQ2T board. A player who has not played a hand to a showdown in TWO HOURS goes all in. Only AJ beats me, but what else can you EXPECT? I HEE-HAW call and SUCKOUT when a K comes on the river. I feel dirty.

I played in the $20/180 at stars. This is my all-time favorite tournament/SnG. But this time I was out surprisingly early. I was defending a straight vs. the BB on a board of AT2TK with 3 spades. So, my QJ is a straight, but I could be against a back-doored flush or a BB special boat. When he goes all-in, I once again eat the peppered-beef and call. He had T2o for a boat. Could I READ that? Probably not. But can I justify once again eating the peppered-beef? No way. HEE-HAW.

Friday, April 21, 2006

Card protectors

I am going to post about the value of card protectors over at Lasvegasvegas.com

Its a short, fun read. Here is an excerpt:

There is extra value in these personalized tokens that a mere chip can not duplicate. That is one of association. You are supplying other players at the table a mnemonic or memory association to aid their brain in remembering all the times you bet and made them fold. You can thus “craft an image” at the table for that player, making it easier to trap him when you have a big hand. If you always bet after the flop, “he will remember that the ‘pewter frog’ always bets after the flop”. When you know what he knows, you have an advantage you can exploit. (I leave that part up to you. Enjoy.)

Time has come today...

"I am leaving to pick up the pizza, be back in 10!" and she left.
I opened up the laptop and fired up Party poker. I wanted a quick, low stakes NLHE game that I could drop into for 2-3 rotations and log off. I knew that being rushed would mean I may end up down a few bets, but I had not played in four days and just could not resist.

First rotation of table, down 6 BB.
Second Rotation of table, now up 40 BB (someone paid off my flopped set. more to the point, someone with TP tried to push me off my set)
Third rotation of table, not up 50 BB and time to logoff.

Best return ever as it was 50BB in 15 minutes or a rate of 200BB/hr! W00T!

So what if it ins't a valid sample!!!... um... shut up!

Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Same game, different animals

And the wolves turn into sheep... and all becomes as clear as an un-muddy lake...

I went down to the Greektown casino here in Detroit on Monday night. I sit down at the "beginner" table. 1-2NL 50/100 buy in and its a new table. 10 players with stacks of 100 each. no big stack. and so it begins...

And it became apparent, quite quickly I might add, that I was one of the better players at the table. And even though there were no giant hands, and I had an average run of cards (1 big pair), the chips came my way. Slowly and surely. I booked a 70% return.

Seat 1 : a ghost. It was as if he was not there. Not a factor at all.
Seat 2: me
Seat 3: A semi-solid player who could hold his own but overplayed hands, especially TP.
Seat 4: A semi-loose player who was trying to win big hands by calling raisers with any two cards hoping to hit 2pair or better. He did once, calling a raise to 15 with K8s and hitting 2 pair. Despite this OBVIOUS pattern, he got paid off. Said it was his first time in a B&M card room.
Seat 5: A complete moron. Really. I especially liked the “horny fox” baseball cap. NEVER knew where he was in a hand and re-bought twice.
Seat 6-7: the rotating seats
Seat 8: Loose to the point of stupid. He would play at pots at random, like that would fool anyone. NEVER knew if he was behind but he must have assumed he always was because his bet were intended to be pressure bets.
Seat 9: Tight weak. Weird player who looked like it was his first time in a crowded room.

and it was soooo easy to know where you were at. They reacted to everything, but never did anything that forced me to react or make a tough decision. I never even had to gamble. I even had TWO river value bets paid off. It was fun.

Value Raises:
Q2s from the BB hand. Free Flop. All check flop of QT5. Turn is a rock. River is a rock. Value bet on river. TWO callers paid off my TPLK. (top pair lousy kicker).

42o from SB, Flop is 742. He bets POT. I call. He bets same amount (note: betting the same on the turn as the flop is my weakness indicator.) I call. River is a Queen and he bets 20 into about 50. I figure I am good here and can get one last bet out of him. I raise 20 and he mucks?? $20 into $70 and he mucks? Never saw that coming. But still a nice pot.

Being proud of bad results

buy in for 200 (new table). Later players bought in for more, including the limper here, who bought in for 300.

I am playing KT in the Utg. I make it 7. I know its a marginal hand, but I folded for 2 hours and I figure to get some respect here. The MP who seems alright calls, the SB calls. That is a pot of 23. The flop is K95 rainbow. The SB (FTA) bets 15 (pot 38). This is an OBVIOUS steal, so I come over the top for 30 (pot 53) expecting the limper and the SB to fold to such confidence.

The limper raises to 90. That is a monster raise and if either of us called, would easily have been the biggest hand of the night.

The SB QUICKLY folds (he would not have called my raise) and I am left to PONDER. I have been playing two hours and not seen a flop. Now this guy is kinda new to the table, but had no reason to believe I am bluffing. I figure him for AK minimum as its just too much of a bet and he cant expect that with AK I would fold. He might have a set and already put me on AK and figures to go for my money now before I draw out on him... Yes, that seems the most logical. I fold.

Another hour of folding. And then I fly home. Down $20 for the trip.

But after reviewing the dicipline and the results, I really have to be happy. Any hand I would have played, I would have played from behind. And I would have lost a ton more money.

continued next post...

Thursday, April 13, 2006

flux

that's all I can say. I played decent poker for hours on end last night at the 1-2 NL table and ended up down $30. Not so much a loss as simple flux. And there were plenty of opportunities to win large pots. Just none of them were mine. It was the return of famed and under-rated super friend El-Foldo. He fold and fold and fold and fold and fold. fold fold fold, fold fold fol, the itchy and scratchy show....

Its been a long time since I saw this bad a run. connectors only under the gun, button and late position featuring 2s and 3s. Never did I see the famed jack-hammer so much in a single evening. And the players, oooo. It was killing me. Madasow is right. Players rarely seem to know where they are at.

I lost a couple of hands on a paired board discovering I was behind, or calling because the other player was underbettering. I won a hand on a board of TT5 and two diamonds when I bet out and the girl was literally contemplating whether or not she was going to "chase the flush". In the end, she folded, worried about the Ten I obviosuly had. I had AA. I had 88, 77 and 44 over the course of the 3 hours also, only the 77 held when it made a one card flush to win a tiny pot.

So, about 5 hours of poker at 1-2NL and ended down $20. And despite being one of the better players at the table, the lone opportunity I had to win a big hand was when I folded (incorrectly I think) AT on a KQ board to an underbet. The turn was a Q. But it was the second hand of the night, and I dont like to tango until I have seen a rotation or two. Otherwise, its impossible to put your opponent on a hand.

Well, I hope it goes better next time. I was dealt about 200 hands last night, I think I got to play less than 20. Now that is dicipline.

So, what do I take away from all of this? Just because you are bored of folding, you can't play T8o from MP. And this time, I didn't have to lose any money learning the lesson. I already knew it.

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

trip report day 1

I am continually amazed at how much easier it is to read basic play in a casino. 1. The game slows down from online
2. Internet players bluff too much
3. It Is EASY to spot the regulars because they cant resist talking to the dealers.

I played in the Alladin $30+$30 last night. 55 players, most of whom thought they knew how to play cards. In most cases, they played level 1 poker. I was a table one, so I never moved until the final table, so I got to see some players for quite some time. On the dealers left was a guy who really looked like he understood poker, but in the end could not slow to the pace of brick and mortar and bluffed off his chips. Seat 2 was tighty mctight, who bleed to death. Seat 3 was young gun, who watched lots of poker on tv, but never knew when he was behind. Seat 4 for a girl who also knew how to play, but wanted to get her money in pre-flop. Seat 5 was crocadile dundee who would limp into every pot, chase every draw, and only fold to BIG reraises when he had zero. He would cost me half my stack at the 2/3 mark. He limps and I find KQ in the BB. I pop it and he calls. Flop is A54 and I check. He checks. Turn is a 8 and when I check he again checks. The river is a Queen and when I bet he raises. I could not put him on AQ here. Did I play it poorly? maybe, but he would have called me down and I did not intend to call any bet on the flop or the turn. seat 6 was a rotating "bust me" seat. Seat 7 started wtih a tourist, who on the second hand put a huge re-raise on my pocket TT. I let it go. He busted in the first hour. Seat 8 and 9 were internet players. Mechanically sound, but very predicatble.

I finihsed 9th our of 55 (paid 6) when my AK suckered a KQ all in and the river brings the JT9 straight.

EV -$60

Checked out the new Ceasar's card room. Nice and open, with little fanfair. Well run. Mix of tourists and regulars. Easy to spot both. The tourist would donk off their entire bankrolls like they were resigned to the fact. One guy called my pot size re-raise having only looked at one of his cards!

Another guy sat down and raise it to 5x every hand, lost $300 in 15 mintues and left like he was unlucky. Unlucky? Gez, forgedaboutit

But, despite that dead money, I lost 3/4 of my winnings in two hands I had to let go to huge re-raises. And when one guy went on tilt and unloaded his chips onto the table over 5 hands, the best I could come up with was the jack-hammer. So, I left up a paultry $10.

EV +$10
Total for the day -$50.

Ate at a hawaiian themed cheesburger place. Worst food ever. Total negative EV. And my chap stick? $3.50!

And you know what else I just noticed about vegas? They are some consumed with creating their imaginary casino worlds, that there are no US flags anywhere. Now, I have not checked out NYNY to see if they have one, but it really seems at times that Vegas does not want to be associated with the US. What's so bad about the US? Especially is your RUN A CASINO?

Sunday, April 09, 2006

Well we're on the road to Vegas, we really do get around...

I am off to Vegas this week on, get this, business! That's right, as fasr fetched as it seems. So, hopefully I'll have a trip report where I managed to sneak off one night and play in a tourney. Maybe on the the Monday night tourneys at the Alladin. Who knows? Not I.

Thursday, April 06, 2006

donkey invitational update

On my last $10 I entered a $10 tourney. I now have $70 of my $200 recovered. I hope to build some momemtum now...

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Peter Gunn

I love old mystery shows, and I love the classic noir serials like Peter Gunn. The attempts of the writers and producers to include a mood, not just a look, with a show. (Peter Gunn is where Blake Edwards toned his writing skills for what would be a great run of movies.) But what the hell does that have to do with cards?

If you wish, you can now listen to Staccato's Theme by Elmer Bernstein as you read this. I know I am.

Well, Peter would stoically progress through the mystery until he finally hit that breaking point. That point where he figures it out and stops looking, and starts finishing. That magical point can be the heart of a movie moment, just ask M. Night Shyamalan about the Sixth Sense. And that can be the point of disaster. Just ask M. Night Shyamalan about, well, anything else. You see, it’s hard to hit that moment at the right time with the right move. It’s the fundamental difference between cash games and tournaments.

And just as an aside, the timing and the number of these breaking points swings based on the size of the tournament. 18 people, usually just 1. 45 people, maybe two. 90 people, typically 2 but maybe 3. Big field tournament? Well, who can say? But its not dozens. Sometimes it can be as small as 3. You have to be ready.

And when they happen, you have to win them. Its not enough for the other guy to fold. That is a normal moment of a classic western showdown like where Blondie stares down Tuco. (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0060196/) That doesn’t create the break through moment. It delays it. There has to be conflict and resolution. Without this climactic moment, you garner neither momentum nor enough chips to be threatening.

Last two days, I played in two pretty tough tournaments. Both about 90 players. One for a WSOP $1500 seat (Blogger tournament) and once for just the prestige (WWdN) Tuesday night. I finished 13th and 4th. In both, I had to win one hand from behind. A big one. And its that momentum to propels you. Sure I won 4-5 times that many while ahead, but I was on the suck-out end of one each tournament to keep the chips coming. In the WWdN I finally went down 4th when my KT lost to QT. Bad beat? Hardly. The blinds were forcing us to play these hands like they were gold. And I was really only a… hey… I had him dominated. **ck. . Ok, anyway, I got my money in ahead. What else can you do?

When you are in a tournament, the trick is to never get into a situation where your pre-flop bet is non-threatening. One of the best ways to avoid this is to build up chips. This gives you flexibility and options. You are looking for those breakthrough moments. There is no use in avoiding them. Another nod to the Matt Matros article (http://www.mattmatros.com/), you can’t avoid marginal advantage pushes in a big field tournament. You need your breakthrough moments.

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Move over Peabody and Sherman

Its time once again for Columbo’s Unsolvable Mysteries

As a kid, I loved reading Encyclopedia Brown. For those of you not nerdy enough, he was a middle school dectective who channeled Sherlock Holmes. The books were light reading, and the mysteries often a single chapter. Solvable, although improbable, scenarios involving ice cream or lunch money.

Then, as I grew up, I would watch shows like Jack Klugman in that dead body show Quincy and secretly read me mom’s old Nancy drew collection.

I thought I was in heaven when they put Ellery Queen on TV. But I can't tell you why. Each show was more of a contest to guess the relevant info, much less the solution (see also the books, which ran similar). In one show, even at a tender age, I remember yelling at the TV, “bring me the head of that writer!”. It was justified, I can assure you. It was as if the writers were trying to prove how smart they were by making the mystery overtly devious and confusing.

So, in the vein of unsolvable mysteries (like Pluribus Enigma and Jack the Ripper), here now are Columbo’s unsolvable mysteries…

You are in early position with 44. You know that this is a difficult place. Many players would pass, others would raise. Some limp and fold to any second raise. In this case I take the latter. The cutoff (who is 1/4 of your stack) makes the 4xBB raise and it folds back to me (no blinds called). I can either make this call on implied odds OR I can fold saying I dont have enough callers to make it worth while. I decide since stacks are deep that I will call. The flop is 23Q rainbow. There are 3 options:
1. Bet out at least half the pot.
2. Check and fold (weak tight)
3. Check-raise to show strength.
I decide on option 3. So, I ask you now. Was it a mistake to call the raise vs. a short stack? Was it a mistake to check-raise someone who is "ready to go"? Did it even make sense to play the hand? And when he comes over the top of the check-raise, did he play KQ/AQ or is he bluffing?

And finally, if he does have AQ, how do you avoid losing money? (When the flop comes statistiaclly you will be ahead about 76% of the time here.)

Here I am again in this bubble world, and

You’re so far away from me

So far away from me
So far I just can’t see
So far away from me
You’re so far away from me

ARGH!

I watched in jealous horror as Poker Princess (maigrey.livejournal.com) did what I could not. She put together a final run. I am running above avg the entire tournament thanks to 2 breaks. Now, I get the best of her in a hand and I am at about $19k and she was some amount less. That was the last I saw of her as in the next 20 minutes she bolted from just behind me to over 100k in chips.

All I could do was stare like the Coyote after the road runner goes "beep beep" and is GONE in a puff of smoke.

I finished at about 14th, there were about 90 players, and it paid just 2 spots. Once again, the lean bubble hands were the ones that cost me. Once again, its hard to pinpoint the breakdown since my hands became a one of those movie cliches where you hear the echoing voices and the transparent shapes float past with occasional laughter. Only these shapes were K6o, Q2s, 45s, 6To, etc. Lots of QTo facing a raise. It was 2am, so I did not get to see who won, but I can only assume with twice the chips of even second play, she was in the catbird seat.

WW kept telling me, M not Q. But it is VERY hard for me to believe that. How can I be ok with an M of 17 if my Q is .9 and there are only 2 payouts. You see my dilemma??

Thursday, March 30, 2006

The Leopard and his spots (aka A saucer full of secrets)

It’s an über update! Contained in this post are actually 3.5 blog entries. (Now with more blog!) It all started last Friday when I could not attend my normal Friday night game. So instead I decided to throw a SnG for others who did not play in that game. I got 5 others to come over and play back to back 6 handed SnGs. Deep stack and short handed. Like Jack Benny and Mary Livingstone, they go great together. I really was whooping it up too, being more gregarious than Scotty Nguyen with a Scotch. I was in my element, having fun and something wonderful happened. I took down the first SnG. The second one was a different tale. I had much more to drink, at times was almost rude (but I hope not), and on the last hand of the night, got to say “dems quads bitches” as I took down the second SnG. Interestingly, this is not the first time I have played this “style” and done well. The Leopard is happy with his spots when they are short tabled and deep stacked.

The next day, I play for 5 minutes online while I was waiting for Mrs. Columbo to get ready for a dinner party. I turned $10 into $25 and left. Good stuff.

I read an article in Card Player stating that we should work on our game through other methods (other than just playing poker). The author of the article offered no real exercises, just some loose suggestions. But the advice is sound. But what to do about it? (wait for it…)

Next was Tuesday night tourney time. But I missed the entry window?! Oh no! I blew it. What to do? Well, I figured last week during my run at the prize, fellow blogger WW sweated me and encouraged me. So, I guess it was my turn. One good turn deserves another.

So, do you remember last weeks Tuesday post? Me neither, but remember that for a minute. At the beginning of the tournament, WW gets a bit below average and has to battle back. It’s a solid battle with some well played hands. Then a golden opportunity presents itself and he triples up. This is a big deal. M is great, Q is >2. Sound familiar? It should. loyal readers will remember this as it was the exact position I found myself in the previous week. And here is the thing. Despite making all valid decisions, the result was the same. Loss of momentum and out around 10-12ish. WHY?

It was like I watching a movie of someone playing me in a tournament. Creepy. Kookie. Mysterious and Spooky. I got to watch myself through a window. Sure they were completely different hands and completely different circumstances. But as the next day rolled on, I continued to see a parallel. Why did we burn out when everything was going our way? I have stumbled upon and important question, but do I have an answer?

Meanwhile, at another table, our hero joins an O8B game. I buy in and on the very first hand, I play like a plebe and donk off an entire buy in when I make a completely donkey/unjustifiable call on the turn. Amateur hour from yours truly. I buy back in and don’t lose another hand, but only win back about 30% of what I lost on that one hand. Why? In this case, it was because I played the first hand like it was play chips that did not matter. Playing well always matters. Always. What happens when you don’t concentrate? You lose. Simple enough. That is an easy lesson. It’s not like swimming where you can play in the pool or swim laps. Either play to win or don’t play at all.


Please have a point!!

Ok. Ok. I will. Let’s bring it full circle now.

Back to my Tuesday night observation session. I suggest you take time out to sweat someone. Especially if they play a similar style as you do. Watch the hands, watch the results. Learn something about yourself.

My observations...

Stage 1 of the tournament. Blinds are so small they are almost invisible. We make positive choices and try to get a foot hold. We all have had this drilled into us. Hand selection, position, etc.

Stage 2 of the tournament. Time to chip up. Accumulate. Survive. Advance. Make good choices. Loose players stumble into each other. For every 10 of them, 9 go out and 1 has a ton of chips. For the rest of us, its about seizing opportunity. And depending on the size of the field, you may need to push marginal advantages very hard. (See excellent article by Matt Matros about why this is so)

Stage 3. Where the rubber meets the road. It is time to change gears often now. Loose when they are tight, tight when they are loose. Sounds easy, but it is not. The loose players are unable to tighten up and self destruct. The rest of us try to prey on them now. But what happens as we wade through the K7 and the J9 hands? If we are not first to the pot, then we either have to call a bet to see a flop with marginal holdings, or we have to wait for our turn to be first to the pot.

Its time to switch to TV mode. The poker you see on TV. All the bad habits we had to closet away to make it to this point now have to be unleashed and risked. Slow playing, pushing K7, Middle and bottom pair play. Aggression for aggression sake. These are the bubble formulas, the ones that we get to practice the least. Its no longer good enough to be solid, you need to use fear, intimidation and pressure. TV poker. The poker we mock all the other times.

You need VALUE for big hands. Even drawing hands. You may not wish to get your money in pre-flop with KK. WHY? Normally, you cant afford to get knocked out. But now, you cant afford to have zero callers. You need their dumb-ass, low percentage, blind defending hands in your pot. Not alot of them, maybe not even 2 of them, but you need 1. You cant win the final stage of a tournament only playing pre-flop. Its just too hard and too much is left to chance.

I hope I am right. I need this last peice of the puzzle to come into focus...

Wednesday, March 22, 2006

WPBT Summer Classic Update

http://www.thisisnotapokerblog.com/archives2/000338.html

Courtesy of April

Pillow Of Winds

There comes a time in everyone’s endeavors where he feels like Sisyphus, pushing the boulder up the hill until the end of time. I remember talking with a friend one summer about his golf game. He had reached the point where he shot around 90 for 18 holes. He was happy. And he furthermore made a statement. “I don’t ever want to be better than this. Everyone I play with someone who is better than this, he feels the pain of every bad shot. After 18 holes, they are miserable. I play for fun and I want it to stay that way.” I never agreed with that because when I stop getting better, I lose interest because I no longer enjoy the act.

This week, I may have reached this fork in the road with poker.

Last night, I played in a tournament where in level 1 I really mixed it up. At the end of level 1, I had ½ my stack left. I was chatting with a fellow player who had the same run of cards and was also now at 50% of starting stack size. I mentioned how sweet the victory is when you have to play back from the brink of elimination.

He went out a while later, but I battled on. I like my short stack play and got some great folding equity out of some otherwise marginal hands like 88. I am playing my heart out, but at the first break, I am still below average. I continue to play and play, striving to make good decisions. I don’t even really have to win a race. At the second break, I continue to accumulate chips, but I am still below average.

We are down to 3 tables and I am far down in the standings. But again, I accumulate chips. My Q fluctuates between .5 and .7 the entire time. My M gets as high as 12 and the levels were generously timed. But now I have to make moves. And I do. I finally get a couple of hands back to back where I capitalize on my opponents incorrect calls. And then I have two big hands. Both times I am ahead and I stay ahead. Suddenly, I am the chip leader with 16 left.

Action is TIGHT and often the first 3xBB steal raise takes down the pot. Very often in fact. This goes on for most of a level.

I fluctuate between 2nd and 4th until the next break. I am 3rd or 4th in chips at 9600. The first hand after the break, its folded to me on the Button. I put in a 3x steal raise to 1800 and the SB goes all in for 900 more. I made a fatal mistake. I did not notice that the SB was pot committed already. A stupid mistake. And one that was so embarrassing, I COMPOUNDED my mistake by folding to the all-in which was only 900 more. I was getting 5 to 1 which justifies any two cards. I had Q2s. So, now I just made two mistakes and fall to 7th place out of 12. But neither mistake is fatal, and certainly I am not going to tilt over this. I am still in fine position.

The very next hand, I decide I can take advantage of my misfortune. Here is the thing about mistakes. You can capitalize on this just like an opponent does. You have portrayed and image and you can capitalize on it by realize how others will view your action following it. Utg+1 makes his steal raise, but its 4xBB not the typical 3xBB. I have AK in LP and its 2400 to me. Raising to 3600 makes no sense if I have only 7800 in chips. Calling is just plain donkey-ish. So, I take the folding equity, knowing darn well I am ahead no matter what. Why?

1. He raised 4xBB and not 3xBB. 3xBB has not been getting called very often. So I have to assume that if he had AA or KK he would be LESS, maybe 2.5xBB.
2. Since the steals are often with Ax, I am 80 to win the hand if he has Ax.
3. If by some chance he has 22-QQ, I am no worse than 45%.
4. I may get him to fold here with an all-in. But I think he might call with AQ or AJ and get burned. That because I lost the last hand and made a weird fold.

I make the re-raise all in and he thinks and calls, as expected. He flips over AQ!!!! I am so happy, I am about to be the chip leader and with 14k in chips, I am almost assured a cash in place 6 or higher.

The flop is JQQ. IGHN.

I was so close… I may no longer be able to sleep… I understand I must win with AK and beat AK to win a tournament. Ironic is some ways, this was my only real race of the night.

What does it take to WIN a tournament? What piece of the puzzle eludes me?

I understand why you have to have a luckbox, but I resent the fact that I never will own one.

Friday, March 17, 2006

A return to the donkey invitational challenge

OH the pain of full disclosure. So I took my $200 and worked it down to $51. How? Mostly by playing $10 tournaments against bloggers and not placing, then playing $.25/.50 and allowing myself to get sucked out on in big pots for $25 a whack.

When I reached the $51, I could have thrown in the towel. I could have reloaded. But I didn't. I took the Chris Ferguson route. Turn $1 in $20k route. I started doing something I should have learned to do a long time ago. I started grinding. Buy in for the minimum, grind it to twice that size, and bank it. (This was the strategy that Ferguson used when he worked that $1 to $20k as I hear it.)

Two huge advantages that buck conventional wisdom:
1. You need a big stack to punish people. Just not true. Out playing them punishes them.
2. If you hit a big hand, you could have gotten a bigger payoff. Strangely not true. Well, that may be true but something else MORE than compensates for it. Other players view you as weak and are MORE WILLING to pay off your hands when they have more chips than you. REMEMBER THIS when you are playing short stacked poker.

I thought I was a good short stack player before. Ha, now I am really good. And I am forced to make more decisions than I thought I would. Every hand could be the set back that ruins my results.

Last night my win rate was 20BB/half hour. I was very happy with this considering that I ran TP into Aces TWICE. Once I escaped on the river because he got greedy, once I did not escape because he was a LAG. What does a LAG always do with Aces? Slow play. He was lucky I did not crack those aces.

And I even got a lecture!!! I am on the button and ALL fold to me. So I raise on any two cards, in this case 35o. The table would typically fold here, but BOTH blinds decided that they would call. The flop is 246. SB bets 2/3 pot. BB flops. I smooth call. The turn is a Ten. He bets again! I figure I will try the old "fake bluff". Remember, I am a SHORT STACK to him, and psychologically he thinks I can’t hurt him. So I push all in like I am on a desperate bluff. He calls. And he is pissed when I show the 35o. “Your (sic) not a good player”. Then someone else at the table jumps in and says, “yeah playing like that, you suck”. “playing 35o is stupid” etc. I just replied, “really? Bad?”.

I noticed they left the table when I continued to take hands. Why play 35o on the button? Come on! Three good reasons.

1. If I get in a showdown and lost, I can show the 35o and be tagged as an idiot. This is profitable.
2. If they fold the blinds, I pick free money and I can show the 35o and be tagged as a bluffer. This is profitable when you are grinding.
3. Because they EXPECT a certain range of cards, if I hit they may bet off their stack in a hopeless situation on pure bravado.

Most times its #1 or #2. That image cost me $.75 and will pay me about $10 over the course of the next hour. This time it was #3.

So, back to our invitational challenge. I have grinded (?) my way back from $51 to $85 in the last 180 minutes of play. And that includes another lost blogger tournament. I am learning to grind and its improving my game.

I even made a call on the river of an all-in bet. But this was different than the peppered meat. I knew I was ahead. Plus, he was a short stack who could not possibly hurt me. :)

My hopes? My dream here? That I can grind my way back to $100, then to $150, move up to $.25/$.50 again and push myself back over $200 for the first time this year. Pathetic for a so called winning player, eh? But beleive me. If I am talking to you in May and I am over $350, I will be a VERY happy camper.

How is everyone else doing in the donkey invitational? (see contest post in Jan)

Tuesday, March 14, 2006

Lassie eats the pepper meat

I am blessed with a horrible memory. I can watch a movie I saw last year and enjoy it like its the first time. But for some reason, some things stick with you. Images, snippets, jetsam. I remember a Lassie story book I was reading, for some random kid reason decades ago,. In it was a description of how Lassie was taught not to take food from strangers. When they gave her food in a bowl, it was fine. When they fed it out of their hands, it was wraught with pepper. Dogs learn stuff like that.

Calling an all in bet on the river is eating the pepper meat. I have had to learn this lesson NUMEROUS freaking times in the last two weeks. Including just now. OK!!! I GET IT. GIVE ME SOME F-ING WATER ALREADY!!!

Me learn stuff too. (hopefully)