What a year has done

Last year, I won my league outright and started strong this league year. But as I play only 2-3 a month now, I find myself making mistakes that seems to be from lack of experience. Not stupid mind you, but if you do something wrong over the course of a MTT and you fix it for the next one, that is learning. If you make a mistake and then a month later make another mistake, you are trapped in a feedback loop that is too large to be helpful.

$200 live MTT:

Level is 300/600/75 and I still have about $18k of my starting $20k. Despite my best efforts, I had to lay down a number of hands (correctly in all cases). So now, its costing me $1500/round for an M of 12. UTG opens and I call in the BB with Jh9h. I am just defending my BB more than anything here, BUT the player who opened is not a stealer.

Flop comes down 9 high with 2 diamonds. He bets out $5k into a $2500 pot and I mistakenly hatch a plan. I am going to go with this hand hoping I am ahead but also bluff all-in if the 3rd diamond falls. So I call and when the 2d comes on the turn, I move in. He SNAP calls with TTd.

Would I SNAP call there? No, I am thinking it through. But enough about his TINY mistake. My large mistake comes from playing stupid 1/2 cash games and not a daily MTT. My gosh what a difference playtimes makes.

Homegame software

Anyone used this? http://www.bluffave.com/

Poker and NFL spring

Not to make an X Spring reference, but wow. After losing online poker to legal madness, the NFL decides to trump poker for most interesting off-season.

Payton CUT and goes to Denver.
Denver sends Tebow to the JETS (the most pious to the most heinous locker room.)
Bounty-gate results in serious (record setting?) suspensions
Redskins mortgage their future (three first-round draft picks and a second-round pick!) to move up 4 spots in the draft in the biggest trade since Hershel Walker (the first/last time Jerry Jones was effective).
After making the playoffs for the first time in over a decade, the Lions lose just ONE free-agent.

I have heard again and again that FullTilt purchase will close on date [insert plausible but random date here]. And that payback of monies could (cough) follow. no details, not ever.

I think the online poker industry needs to do something crazy to get attention. Seems to me that the PPA has all but thrown in the towel. Posting (aggregating others) news video is not what I need a PPA for. Asking members to post to Facebook seems to be the remaining call-to-arms. Sigh... A sad state of affairs over there.

Found an excellent paper in my desk

As my skills rust, and news regarding any online poker look like they are in the 2012 range, its always fun to find good skill reminder notes. Here is an excellent list I put together after a session online, which I recently reflected on:

Preface: Position > Cards > Chips > Position. Old news.

1. Stop calling to just see flops. You cant play poker to just hit flops. Well you can, but its "flop-trap" poker and it only works in low-limit cash games. If you want to win tournaments, you need to win hands.

2. To win hands, you need to play hands. RAISE with your decent hands from LP because your cards and position will be ahead of their RANGE. This forces opponents to play larger pots when you have the edge. Assuming you remember #1 above! We tend to get out of this solid habit because of "early round" syndrome.

3. River bets are telling.

Honorable mention (mostly because I NEVER do this): Don't play Ax when deep from OOP after a limper. Statistics show that nothing good will happen here.

WSOP schedule out

Say what you want about the % of juice in the WSOP MTTs, you have to give them credit for evolution. Not just the demise of the November 9, but adding additional events (including a HO), and twice daily Deep-stack cash MTTs to compete with Venetian. It's a cornucopia of poker regardless of the days you are there.

May 27 through July 16, 2012 at the Rio, so rumors about Caesars will have to wait another year.

http://www.wsop.com/tourney/tourneydetails.asp?groupID=887

I'll admit though, I wanted to see MORE shootout events. This year, there is just event 14 (@ $1500).

Musings

I am still shocked and dismayed at the online poker state of affairs.

First off:
While the statement from the AGCC did not mention anything regarding the buyout of Full Tilt Poker by French investment group Groupe Bernard Tapie, it is still believed that GBT will acquire the online poker brand and assets from the US Department of Justice in exchange for one $80 million payment. Upon transfer, the US DOJ will drop all charges and civil complaints against the Full Tilt name. It is still unknown whether or not players will ever be reimbursed for their confiscated accounts, though many are still hopeful that once the takeover is finalized, the new owners will make their best effort to pay back some or all that is owed to the disgruntled US players. HA!

Does this mean I can write $6k off on my taxes as theft?

Online casinos continue to operate in Europe. I dont think its surprising to see them, nor do I see any chance of a Casino Online being shut down.

By the way, my favorite game show of all time is "Happy Family Plan", a Japanese show I saw in Hawaii (thus the translation). There was a roulette expert who could simply through hundreds of hours of practice, get the little ball to drop in green-zero every time. No mechanical assistance, just expert timing. Amazing. Online roulette is probably safer. Roulette Rules

SOPA is an act of Terrorism

Terrorism - "the use of violence and threats to intimidate or coerce, especially for political purposes. "

SOPA (in a nutshell) - allow holders of copyright to enact and enforce injunctions against ALL PARTIES involved in a alleged violation. ED: In old school terms, this would have consisted of: The Newspaper, Radio (and TV), Drivers of trucks who distribute the newspapers, Stores than sells the newspaper, Manufacturers of radios, Newspaper editors and publishers, Journalists, Disenchanted youth, and the bloody ROADS that the trucks drive on to distribute the newspapers.

Why?: Because incumbent and long established companies wish to stave off the tide of inevitable change.

Copyright - Created on or after January 1, 1978, life of the author plus 70 years. Except for Disney.

Why would we pass a law that allows record companies to engage in terrorism?

Better Finish

Set myself up great in this weekends MTT by going for the throat when I was ahead instead of playing it safe. Accumulated more chips with the same hands in this way and and was in the top 3 in chip going to the final table. With 8 left though, lost a huge race. Stack of $20k moves in pre-flpo again (3rd time in last 10 hands). Folded to me in the BB with $45k and I look at QQ. Easy call. Villain shows AK and a King takes nearly half my stack. I never really got it going again after that, having to resort to stealing with marginal (and awful) hands to keep ahead of the $1k/$2k/400 blinds. At $5k a round, I was eventually picked off in 6th place, when a QT steal ran into AQ... held by the same villain. But happy with my play, so what can I say?

League night goes awry

Playing in my regular 3 table MTT and starting on time creates a short handed table. I play better short handed and ground my chips up about 50% by the first break. But by now, we are 9 handed and its back to looking for opportunities. I really had a dry spell and with 15 or so players left, was at like $13k. As we fell to 8 and 7 handed and the blinds continue to creep up (putting my M around 15), I started getting more aggressive preflop for antes and blinds. I had a couple of stellar opportunities with People limping when their M is around 10, which makes it great on the button (or in the blind) to put someone to the test. Its especially lucrative when the limper induces a late position call. Now suddenly, they have to put in 10k more to cover a 800-1k limp and when they fold, you pick up $2500 in chips! And of course, you do this with ANY TWO. In my case K5o. But alas, its interesting how the fates play you. I find myself in the exact same position a few rounds later, but this time I have QQ. I take the same time to think as I did with K5o, trying to duplicate my actions. But when I put the chips in, I get the insta-call from the trickster KK. He had suspected larceny, so he limped with KK hoping to induce me to do it again. May I would, maybe not, but with an M of 15 and their being antes+blinds+KK limper+LP Caller = $4200 in chips and me with like $15k, its way too much to pass up with QQ here with 13 players left. Even if he has AK, I am happy moving in with QQ here. But 7 handed, I am not expecting to run QQ into limping KK. Who would really? So, disappointing finish, but happy with the play.

Next week I may have to MISS due to a daughter's birthday, which would set back my efforts to finish in-the-money in both leagues. I am clearly on a slide in league 2 and need a strong finish.

The Ugly State of Affairs

I have already admitted that losing online poker briefly helped my game. But now its killing it. Only play 2-3 times a month is no way to pursue a skill set. You can listen to guitar playing to know that! And MTT play is so feast or famine. I finished 5th and 25th in a couple of 3 table tournaments. Played both pretty well, but in the second one a short stack flopped a set on my KINGS, and then I am the short-stack. 8 hands later, I run a stop-n-go with AJ on a garbage board, just to get called by the big blind's improbable AQ. Cant say I would play either hand differently based on the situations and circumstances. So, there you go. But if I have online games, I can whenever I want to work on something. And now that Full Tilt has been found "short" covering deposits, it creates a longer road for all of us.

Omaha post!

It looks more and more credible that there will be some sort of regulated on-line poker in the US in the next couple of years. When it does return, I will not be playing much hold'em. The more I play any other game, the more I see the common mistakes I used to see in Hold'em years ago. Mostly, players overvaluing hands.

I play Omaha relatively snug pre-flop, and I understand the "Deeb Rule" that most Omaha decisions are made on the FLOP (not the turn or river). So, when I sit down at an Omaha table, I commonly note two things:

1. Early in the session, players are wacky, stupid gamblers. Somehow sitting at a PLO table with just a buy-in, seems to make people feel inadequate and they will play volatile poker on purpose chasing the most unreasonable draws.

2. If they call a bet pre-flop, they will call ANY RAISE preflop.

I am at a 1-2 PLO table with a straddle. I am in early position with a marginal (very marginal) hand and I decide because of my middling connecting cards to limp and hope that we see a flop. Guy on my left raises to $25, 4 people call and I fold. Guys looks at me and asks, "How can you fold?'

Turns out he has a worse hand than me and had to fold to a bet on the flop. Two guys flopped pretty solid hands, but when someone now bets POT, its an all in this early.

After the hand, I explain to the guy. Look, when you guys "juice" the pot because you want to play big pot poker for some reason with marginal hands, all you do is create a situation where the first to bet the flop is all-in and the callers are chasing draws and gambling. If you want to gamble, play roulette. If you want to play poker, you dont make it $25 from early position with 23QJ two suited. WTF?

Needless to say, I never limped again from EP. Never should have. But I am not going to compound a marginal play with an awful one.

I did create a what I thought was an interesting situation when I was later dealt AA9x double suited and limped from EP. But when someone made it $25 again and everyone started calling, I got pissed and POT pre-flop all-in. EVERYONE called. Stupid. Two of the hands should never have called $25 and the third hand should never have called the $225. But one of the stupid hands flopped a straight with Q9 and STILL I was live to ANY HEART on the river. In the end, I did not improve and lost a Buy-in. Wow. What a game.

I pushed chips around for another hour after that, but it was clear that over the long haul, this was a game I was going to profit at. And each player played every hand consistently for his play, no guessing necessary. Like watching a movie after reading the book.

(I had taken $1400 out of this game a month ago, so despite the minor setback, feel even more confident now.)


On a side note, just to comment on Hoyazo's comments on the craptacular WSOP play. I never got the see the bubble bustout as my DVR cutoff. In watching that now, how does KQ call there? Ever? Just how did you get that far? Just wow.

WSOP and ESPN

What many expected to be inevitable was finally announced today.. That's right, the NBC heads-up tournament is cancelled. Ha! I fool you. Ok ,really, did ANYONE watch two people playing "battleship" on TV? It just is not good TV. But, in a final coup for poker on TV, ESPN pulls the trigger on ending bad, edited poker and will open up the screens to their new, "See a flop, see the hole cards" philosophy. This worked so well in the early week of the WSOP, that I taped and watched all of it, sparing me the onslaught of pointless cutting to celebrities getting it all in, numerous interviews with Jason Alexander or 2 stupid dogs alumni Brad Garrett, and Norman Chad's "jokes". I actually just deleted the edited footage because why watch the highlight of a game that you already watched?

Bring on the future!


As for the future of the Full Tilt brand (today was employee cut-down day), it was widely publicized that there was a sale pending "Groupe Bernard Tapie", which broke in late Sept-early Oct. It was supposedly contingent on the settling of the DoJ suit. There are 3 notes here, which are speculation (but good speculation) on my part:

1. Subject to settlement of the issue means that they want the DoJ to unfreeze the funds and let the company keep them as assets. This would be used to attempt to pay back players of essentially (25%) of its liabilities/deposits. Why 25%? That's all the cash there is! This would end the new companies liabilities to depositors*.

2. That the DoJ will in effect, attempt to go after the Pocket Kings owners* and release the new owner from those liabilities and thus also potential lawsuits.

These are significant to both the DoJ and to the purchasers. Taipe could NEVER get item 2 if everyone washes their hands of the current liabilities to current depositors.
But the brand value is not there after paying 100% back, as the price is now to high. So, they offer to refund all the monies that the government unfreezes. Smart. and limits liability to what is already on hand. "everybody" wins. After all, do you want 25cents/dollar back or zed?

As for what Taipe PAYS for Full Tilt... Tapie has Pocket Kings over a barrel here and can pressure that "board" (if you can call it that) to "take what it can get before the value goes to zero". But it can't possibly be enough for the officers-owners to avoid bankruptcy and potentially a permanent ban from returning to the business. Not to mention the players who might literally "Beat the money out of them in a dark alley". If I were those guys, I would consider living LITERALLY outside the US.

And as I continue to maintain, do not compare this to poker-spot. It's like comparing a bank-failure tin 1930 to 2008. They are different animals.

3. And this is a big one... its in the best interest of Taipe to stall until they can see where H.R.1174 is headed. If it passes, they can recoup their investment relatively well. If it does not pass again and dies, they can pay rock bottom dollar for Full Tilt and take their sweet time drafting paperwork.

Repeat Offender

Was there ever a lesson that no matter how hard someone beat it into you, just did not take? Mine is middle pairs on a single overcard board.

I worked my starting stack early and often Saturday, but kept running into "great places to peel a card to no avail" situations which kept giving back my marginal profits. Still, they were all good spots and I had options because of my accumulation of chips through a combination of some good reads and good situations. But with 12k in chips, the MP makes it $1100 (blinds were 200/400) with $5500 behind. I have 88 on the button. Such a bad spot. Folding is too weak, raising is too reckless (and really gets called 99% of the time). I can out her on any decent hand AK-AJ, pairs, even KQ/KJ. I call.

The flop is Q66 and she leads out for $3k.

And I just ship the $5500 thinking, "what are the odds? " In the moment, I felt I was unlucky there. But I really wasn't. I felt that way because I saw the hands.

Thinking about it NOW, what does she have here? She put in a standard raise, despite a short stack. If she raises all in and does not get called, she adds $600 to her stack of $7600. Not bad... But not necessary if M is between 10-11. Its very gray.

But what hand leads out there? I think a Q checks there. I really do. So I expect that a PAIR or AK leads out only. BUT if you are willing to BET on a missed flop with AK, you should have shipped it pre-flop with that stack size.... So, I am looking at a pair between say 55-AA. and I have 88. Sure, sometimes I can see 77 there. So, the entire time I am probably behind a hand like 99 or JJ.

Yet, I let two things cloud my judgement. "It's hard to make a pair in this game" and "she has a short stack". Neither of which really apply to a LEAD BET on this flop.

In my defense, I think it was a misread of her playing the hand poorly with a small pair. I was WAY off and she tabled AQ. I was floored and in retrospect she played the hand in such a way that she should not have gotten paid off. Yet there I was, counting out 1/2 my stack.

I never really recovered at the blinds quickly jumped to 400/800 and then at 500/1000 with my $7k stack I had to resort to stealing. When your 6 handed, 9dTd is a great steal hand because it hard to run into monsters and rare to run into A9 or AT so you are always live if called. But this time I run into KK and I finish 13/28... which SUCKS.


Still, I know I am not awful. Early in the night, I flopped middle pair and peeled another card vs. some running an aggro line. When he let me get to the river and a 3rd diamond fell, I think I am beat so I turn middle pair into a bluff and bet out. Top pair folds. Good spot to do that, and just a decent play. The comment that "I must beat top pair because I wasn't good enough to turn my hand into a bluff" was both amusing and mildly insulting. But it did speak to my image in some ways. When I do pick a spot to run a bluff, its because it makes sense.

So it finally happened

Full Tilt Poker and Groupe Bernard Tapie Sign Acquisition Agreement

To whom it may concern: If you don't payout the monies, we'll all know this was a sham. If you DO pay back the monies, then we can go fore bore towards US online regulation and launching of online poker. After all, in not America then where? Oh, wait. Better backpetal...

In other news, is it just me or is the level of play in local poker rooms just horrendous? Didn't anyone learn anything? I sat down at a 1-2 table, first hand, FOLDED AJ. Why, because pre-flop betting was like 10x. Instead, I waited. Took a flop with 44 for $2, or so I thought until the BB raise to $25 and told me to fold. so I did. He flashes AA. That's right, I ran 44 into AA and lost 2 bucks. One rotation later, total loose cannon bets $20 and THREE people call. So, ok, I will call with KJ suited from the cutoff. The flop is JACK HIGH and RAINBOW. 3 checks and I simply ship it ($160). I get no callers. ONE HAND, $100 bucks. Cost to be patient, $19. Total profit: $81 Time Elapsed: not exactly sure, but it was the remainder of the 4th quarter of the Bucs-Falcons game so about 45 minutes. Had I been able to stay, the cannon (or should i say FOUNTAIN) on my left would have spewed the entire $500. That's right: The WORST player at the table talked the poker room manager into raising the buy-in level. WOW. Just WOW.

Spring Forward, Fall Back

I am mostly optimistic, but I also cant claim ultimate victory. I played 2 MTT's this weekend and the entire "count 10" method of thinking has worked really well for me. And just to drive the point home, I went out on a donk play where I did not think the hand through. I made one bad decision all weekend, ending up 15th and 4th. The Lions came on strong to start the season, racking-up such dominance in the first half, that despite a second half full of player and coaching mental errors, practically coasted to victory over a team that is supposedly their equal. This may be the last time you see the Lions 3 point underdogs to a non-playoff team for a LONG time to come. Playing KC at home next week: EIGHT point favorites. How long has it been?

Testing out the new interface

So I am composing this on the new blogpsot template. Even if its better, I dont think it deserves the exclamation point. Anyway, due to the holiday, this weekend is Double-Bonus Poker Weekend ! (deserving of exclamation point). In month 1, I finished a pedestrian 14th, after my AQ got called by A6 and LOST. Argh. I battled on from the short stack, but had to win 2 races and lost the second one. I am looking forward to improving on that finish this weekend. In league #2, I finished 2nd playing good solid blinds-are-high poker, where many cash game players get lost. When I played online, I spent more time on this than reading hands (for both the good and the bad) and now that online poker is lost to us, I am concentrating on hand reading. I am getting better, so its a mixed blessing (which apparently I paid $6k for).

Easy does it...

Last night, the wife was working late so I stopped by the local charity card room on my way home. This time, I was the one felting players. I played pretty well, but went down to $40 on this call. I raise pre-flop and two guys call. I have 77 and the flop is AA6. Check, check, so I bet $15 and I get one caller, OOP. The turn is a second club and this time I bet $25 (into $50). He call, OOP with a naked 6. Really? The river is a 6c and he bets out $40. I sit there thinking, there is no way he would club draw from OOP with a pair on the board and one card to come. so I call to see his rivered sixes.

So armed with $150 I again take a flop via a limp call with 77. Flop is 722 and I check, two checks behind. Turn is an Ace, but to be honest, I already decided to bet $20 into the $30 pot regardless of the turn card. Bully for me, since the turn hit Mr. AK on my left and he ships in $100. Call.

So I am at about $250 when a regular players with whom I am familiar (cough* John *cough) raises to $10 and I min -raise from position with AQ. He calls and the flop ia AQJ. top two on a somewhat action board, but turns out he was cold-decked for the third time of the night when he calls my big turn bet with AJ.

so then the wife shows up from work and we have a nice dinner.

Interestingly (somewhat), was the nice little video I saw today on the power of simply thinking you are going to do well:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfRVCaA5o18&feature=player_embedded

Apparently, thinking your better than everyone does improve your play. So uncheck that ego!

Catching up

Two leagues have started this month, and its time to start thinking about poker again.

My first night was a bit frustrating. I watched a guy who seemed pretty readable, take an EP limp. I figure him for a small pp like 55. In the cutoff, I have 44 and limp to. The blinds come along and the flop misses everyone. On the river, I feel like I can turn my 44 into a bluff, but under bet (?) and he calls with 66. Perhaps he calls there no matter what. But I have about 8k in chips through the first 8 eliminations. Just before the table break, I button raise with A8 and short big blind shoves. I call and he shows A6. A 6 on the river and I am crippled. the table breaks.

I double up at the new table with TT getting me to $8k, but then I 3bet all-in with AK (because the blinds are 500/1000) and TT takes me out.

In the second league, a better result. I am frustrated and had to let go of a couple of hands after being out drawn (but good lay-downs!) And again, find myself with a starting stack size after 4 -5 levels. I end up getting my AQ all-in vs. Kings (in the blind?) and hitting the Ace. From that point on, when I was the smaller stack, I won the race. When I was the shorter stack, I would lose horribly like AJ vs. J8. But I cant complain as I woke up with JJ both times I needed a big hand, and both times JJ held. I finished second, despite not having a huge amount of strategic hands. I did bluff far more than usual after we were down to 4 handed, but in the end finally got caught heads up with 74s vs 88.

Interesting part of self awareness. My heads-up game is terrible. Which is funny, because my short handed game (6-3 players) is pretty darn good. I would practice this online, but alas I still dont have my freaking FT monies, nor do we have an online poker bill yet.

What I learned in the absence of online porker

This might surprise you, but my game has improved since online poker has gone away. A strange thing was happening to my game based on the quantity of hands I could play in an hour. I did not value each hand.

It's a big hard to describe, but it became clear while watching the live WSOP coverage (which, by the way is boring as hell due to the Jamie Gold rule). Hands are won and lost through pattern recognition. If I can identify what your action means, then I should know the correct counteraction. This can be as simple or complex as you like, but there are so many more hands online that you can err on the side of caution, make mistakes, and still have opportunities. Live though, I cant afford to throw away an OPPORTUNITY to win a hand and wait for the next window. When an opponent check-calls the flop, and he check calls the turn, and a 4th spade falls on the river, Ben Lamb is betting out that river with air. More often than not, those check-calls are WEAK and a signal to pressure. But in online action, often we'll not fire that barrel because there is another better spot coming up based on quantity of hands. This is not CORRECT thinking, but a trap I was falling into. I would even justify things by "keeping the pot small" or some other line of reasoning. But in the end, NLHE is a game of position and manipulating opponents into making bad decisions. And if you make those decisions easy, then your opponents errors mean less.

Online poker coming to the UK!

http://www.egrmagazine.com/news/1679057/government-announces-uk-gambling-reform-plans.thtml

Is the US close behind?