Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Armchair psychology and Tournament poker – V

"Is it safe?!" - A well known dentist (marathon man)

Get your opponents in a very uncomfortable place and take advantage of them. Isolation increases odds and reduces volitility. Position allows us to pick our situations easier. And PRESSURE, when we have someone under diress, causes REACTIVE thinking instead of strategic adjustment. And THAT is what we want. This is why concentration is so important. This is why the game gets harder as we go on. This is why players talk about the 3rd level of thinking. Its all about being able to push a psychological edge in a hand, not a 55/45 edge.

When you have a conversation with someone, and it deteriorates into an argument, its because they moved to fight/flight because the conversation is no longer comfortable (or safe) for them. Stated another way, your opponent makes his final choice on a hand at the moment he no longer feels safe. (for those of you who think this is similar to doubleas theories on pressure poker, I agree. The man is a great card player, buy his book. But I want to take it one step further.) This is not about the pressure point (which is measured by doubleas in stacks and bet size) but the psychological equivalent of that measurement in that little mental treadmill in the opponents head. Has he chosen a path at the fork yet? No, they he feels safe. Did we push him to the fork? Then he must make a fight or flight choice. If you are pounding a guy to death, he might make the choice in ADVANCE of the cards being dealt that the next time you play a hand with him, he is going to try and slap you pack. This negates to some degree the ability to apply pressure with a bet or stack size. See?

The recipical is true also. It is easier for you to "risk" when you feel in control and harder when you feel "outflanked". This is a good reason why a pro often can smack around a new player even if he is a good player. It is also the reason so many young players are winning tournaments. We call them "fearless", but a longer winded person :) might say that they never REACT, they are always instead manipulating you to where you are making the fight/flight choices and they are creating the situations. (Because the dispense with subtely and baggage and emotion and even sometimes thinking. But to every strategy is a counter, and this one has its weakness too. The will be susceptable to distractions and attracked to big pots like a moth to a fire.)

You need to feel safe. You need you opponent to be uncomfortable everytime you play a hand with them and are not sure you have a lock on the pot. After years of this, you should be able to steer their choice. And then, suddenly, you are Phil Hellmuth.
Love him or hate him, Phil know this like he knows how to breathe.

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