I did not post this for days as I contemplated the hand and my finish Monday night. 3 table MTT of NLHE. There are SEVEN left, pays but 3. Note my stack size. I cant make the money by folding. I estimate I need to reach 24k in chips to cash. With the top 3 in chips at 15k+, my EFFECTIVE FINAL TABLE Q is .5, and that is very important to me here... Tell me what you do here...
FINAL Table - 150/300 Ante 25
Seat 1: PokerBrian322 (21,090)
Seat 2: RaisingCayne (5,230)
Seat 3: bartonf (15,524)
Seat 4: IslandBum1 (3,458)
Seat 5 [BUTTON]: hoyazo (16,770)
Seat 6 [SB]: columbo (8,580)
Seat 7:[BB}jeciimd (7,348)
PokerBrian322 antes 25
hoyazo has 15 seconds left to act
hoyazo raises to 1,225
Dealt to columbo [Ts Td]
Hoyazo is not know to me to be a "big stack bully", but is famous for his discussions of stealing and re-stealing. AND its folded to him on the button.
If I CALL here, its 15% of my stack and I believe I commit myself to a Stop n Go.
If I RAISE here, its still enough to matter as it would be a 4 times pot raise and 1/2 of Hoyazo's chips.
If he has a premium pair, on the button, folded around, I am dead (JJ,QQ,KK,AA). (Hoyazo has had AA twice in the last 30 minutes.) Based on sheer statistics, I'll ignore that one. If he has Ace-X, he might be afraid of a bigger Ax.
If he has AK, especially suited, he probably calls ANY bet I make, which makes the Stop N Go a better choice. On a non-Ace flop, I would be pushing, but I am SECOND to act. What if he pushed all-in on the flop before I can? Or makes a bet that commits himself? Dunno...
So, what do you want to do here?