Its a field of 400 and the top 10% get paid. There are 50 players left, so its 10 to the bubble. The blinds are 400/800 and the stacks vary from $4800 to $18000. You the $4800 stack.
The UtG player raises to $1800 (3xBB) which is standard since the ante's have not started yet. Folds to you in the 7 hole with AQo. The player folds and Harrington chastises him for his "mistake".
Now I am not one to challange the masters at their own game, but it really bothered me. In the last few weeks, I am sure I would fold AQ here. Anicdotal evidence would show me going on to cash in all of those situations. What am I missing?
Here is my theory, and its important heading into our WSOP season. This may be a situation where its correct to fold online, but push at a table. Why?
- There is far less respect at an online table. Player are more willing to make calls here online. Therefore, you have less fold equity on your push over the top of $3k.
- You play more hands / hour online and therefore can wait longer for a situation you like better, such as getting into the pot first.
- The ante has not started and the player has the biggest stack at the table, so I expect his range to be narrow here. Narrow enough that he knows he is calling my push when he bets here. I expect a pair or AK/AQ from the UtG here. I cant see AJ here with him expecting to have to fold to a reraise and 8 others to get past.
But at a big money brick and mortar tournament, coming over the top here for $3k more carries much more weight in my opinion. You have fewer hands so AQ goes up in value, aggression is far better in table play and is an established formula, and there is more folding respect at a table, especially in big money tournament where you are willing to re-raise on the button. At a table, I might see AJ or a 66 do this expecting to gte past 8 players or simply get called.
This remains a big debate for me in my head and I continue to argue for the fold here. But I certainly see some situations where shoving is correct.