Sunday, December 07, 2008

a big gamble

So last night is league night and despite leagues rewarding tighty-whitey play, a dismal stretch of cards had me folding too many (40+) hands. The one big hand, AA netted me just the blinds. I am at 10k and the blinds are 300/600. (Note: when a 3x raise > 5% of your chips, you have no chip utility.) I make a raise to 1600 with KQ and only the BB calls. The flop is T93 all hearts. He checks, I c-bet, he calls. The turn is something like a 4d and he checks again. I think for a while. The pot is $3k, and I have $7k left. I want to win this pot. Heck, I need to win this pot. So, I decide I am going to try and push him off his hand. The decision is whether to do it here, or wait for the river. Complicating the issue is that I cant put him on a credible hand here. Either he has something like A8 and is worried I am betting a made flush (not likely) or maybe he has a smaller pocket pair like 66 and is thinking I am on AK (probable). I decide since I have the Qh, I will see the river. I decide in advance that if he value bets, and I have nothing, I will fold. I decide if he checks again, I will shove. The river is a black T pairing the board and he checks. I say that I am all in. He calls with T8 for trips.

So I pose this question. "How good/bad was this move/read here?"


OhCaptain said...

In my poker league, top pair is considered a big hand is almost impossible to push people off of.

Probably the most common style of play at poker league is a very passive style. I find it very common that if the player has anything, they will keep calling.

Planning on pushing people off hands only works if I can put them on a draw and the board misses on the river.

David Westbay said...

My tighty-whitey playing style says, "If I make it to the river with no pair in my hand, I assume that someone else in the pot has at least one pair, and I will check-fold at the end." It probably would have been easier to push this opponent off his hand if an overcard had come on the turn or river, making him think his TT was no good. The fact that he called your c-bet on the flop would have made me think he had connected with the flop somehow, as he did, although the flush draw certainly was a possibility too.

Of course, I'm so tight I would have folded T8 to your preflop raise.

SirFWALGMan said...

Good or bad in relationship to your level of play? heh. You made a move at the wrong time. Oh well. Shit happens. It is an MTT. Move along. Obviously only a better hand calls you. I doubt he folds the T with 8 kick though.