Tuesday, June 02, 2009

Final Thoughts on TOC

I think Hoyazo nailed it when he said that I can play too tight in the early to middle stages. Its funny, but in the early stages is debatable. I usually drop 10-15% of my stack in level 1 and spend the rest of the early levels chipping back to start stack size (or SSS). Its those dang-tarnish middle rounds that kill me.

And what has killed me the most in BBT4 vs. say the 32k?
TWO BIG THINGS:

1. Bloggers attack c-bets much harder than your typical field. This makes it more difficult to play ABC poker in a blogger event. (this includes the re-steal on the c-bet, not just the floats and turn take-aways)

2. (excuse me as I attempt to quantify this) I have struggled with "chipping up" without risking losing large pots. As I reviewed my stats from this year, I was going out too early in too many tournaments. Yet, when I adjusted to stop that, I started literally running out of chips in the middle rounds. NOTE TO EVERYONE OUT THERE: If I figure this part of MTTs out, there will be no stopping me. So if you know why I am struggling here and you help me, there is serious karma in it for you.

I could ramble on and on about this topic, and its plagued me for nearly a year now. As a matter of fact, its the reason I originally sought out a mentor. That has resulted in some increased strategy and decision making for me, but has not really squashed the original issue.

I do know one thing though, and I think my nose has been rubbed in it enough for it to take. Simply using Q to determine if I should be crazy loose or not is just plain stupid. I have had better results dropping the Q concept completely from my MTT play.

Now its a matter of playing long rounds 9 handed as well as I play them 6 or 7 handed. Why its so different for me, I am not sure. But man I have to figure out how to win hands with marginal holdings in the middle rounds.

-
As promised yesterday, here was the big game hand that really hurt me... Note that I TIMED OUT DESPITE CALLING TIME. I think I make this call if I had the time.
At the time, I put ScottMc on either a river'd set of 7s, or AIR.

Full Tilt Poker Game #12550357817: Blogger Big Game (81289279), Table 6 - 120/240 Ante 25 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:18:10 ET - 2009/05/31
Seat 3: BuddyDank (10,385)
Seat 4: bdidde (11,960)
Seat 5: ScottMc (2,650)
Seat 6: columbo (5,785)
Seat 7: iaatg6296 (3,290)
Seat 8: rozzz5 (5,155)
Seat 9: cemfredmd (2,370)
BuddyDank antes 25
bdidde antes 25
ScottMc antes 25
columbo antes 25
iaatg6296 antes 25
rozzz5 antes 25
cemfredmd antes 25
ScottMc posts the small blind of 120
columbo posts the big blind of 240
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to columbo [8d 7s]
iaatg6296 folds
rozzz5 folds
cemfredmd folds
BuddyDank folds
bdidde folds
ScottMc calls 120
columbo checks
*** FLOP *** [8c 6d 9c]
ScottMc checks
columbo bets 240
ScottMc calls 240
*** TURN *** [8c 6d 9c] [4d]
ScottMc checks
columbo bets 720
ScottMc calls 720
*** RIVER *** [8c 6d 9c 4d] [7h]
ScottMc has 15 seconds left to act
ScottMc bets 1,425, and is all in
columbo has 15 seconds left to act
columbo has requested TIME
columbo: wow (I am working it out in the old insane-in-the-membrane)
columbo has timed out (ARGH)

ScottMc shows [xx xx] (guess)

There is no way the 7 completes his hand unless he either river'd a set or made a worse 2 pair with 67. I think the odds (based on betting story, not math) might be as follows:

He made a river'd set : 3 to 1
He made two pair : 12 to 1
He has a broken draw with a pair of 7s : 3 to 1
He has a broken flush draw with Ac7c : 2 to 1

Now, as you know over the last 2 weeks, I have collided with more than my fair share of SETS. Oh my yes. A set has sent me packing more than any other hand. So, you can see why I stopped to think LONGER than I usually do. And THAT, more than anything else, cost me this hand.

7 comments:

SirFWALGMan said...

Why do you discount the straight? Scotty does not draw light usually but T8 could be possible if he puts you on a worse hand. The shove at the end would seem like he got there.. Just knowing Scott.. unless he had too much to drink.

freek said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
columbo (at eifco dot org) said...

I give him too much credit to call 720 with a gutshot and think he's good if he doesn't get there.

freek said...

After your bet on the flop, the pot has 895 and it's 240 to call - around 3.8:1. You had him on this range:
Air
77
67
Ac7c

I would add A2-AT, 22-66, JT and maybe T9. I'd call with all these hands except air and A2-A5. If he had a bigger ace or bigger pocket pair, there would have been a raise pre-flop.

When he calls the 720 on the turn (getting 2.5:1), I'd have him down to this range: A7, JT (both likely to be suited diamonds or clubs) or pocket 6s. I can't see calling with air and that stack size.

If you bet 720 on the flop, you either take it their or know you're crushed. I would have bet 600 on the flop with middle pair and the OESD, but I'm a beginner. Is that a bad play?

casino poker said...

wow

freek said...

So what did Scott show?

columbo (at eifco dot org) said...

Ac3c