Monday, June 15, 2009

Last post before Vegas

As tradition, I move to twitter when it comes to updating vegas tournaments and results. Last night I played 3 MTT for some last minute practice and cashed in one. The hand I went out in was interesting though.

95 players left and we are in the money. At this point, the payout is a measly 2x buy-in. Now I raise on a semi-steal with JTs and a blind re-raises all-in and I am SURE its AK. I have a Q of .5 and only the top 9 receive good payouts. (i.e. I have 11k and he has 10k, avg is 20k.) I think the level was 500/1000/125, so my M is about 5.

Knowing all this information, are you willing to call the AK shove?

I was so against going another round and blinding off 2500 of my chips, that I decided that I could not fold despite being 30% here. Have not decided if it was lame or not.


BLAARGH! said...

Your M to begin with was @ 10, you are in shove or fold mode anyway. There is no way you are putting a raise in and not getting shoved on by any half way decent hand, (or if it's Heff, pure air) let alone AK. If your worst case is AK, you're 40/60. Just shove and take the dang blinds. Very weak to R/C.
Hope you have a great time in Vegas!

columbo (at eifco dot org) said...

I see your point here, but I should be concerned about running into TT-KK from my position. Its MUCH easier to call a shove from the BB then from the other positions.

More comments please!

Memphis MOJO said...

If you fold, you're left with nothing (chip-wise) anyway. If you fold and move up one buy-in, who cares? If you call and it's your turn to win the 66-33 contest, you're back in business to do some serious damage. Folding isn't an option.

For those who say you should have shoved, I'm not so sure I agree. When the blinds are this high, a raise is fine. Shoving looks desparate.

BLAARGH! said...

To me the raise seems weaker than the shove, you don't know that he has 1010-KK, AK, AQ 72o all it tells you is he's aggressive and thinks he can get you to fold - his M is the same as yours and he's looking to chip up or go home.- raising with the expectation of folding is pretty weak. If you're not willing to get your chips in the middle, then folding PF is your best option. At this point in the tourney with your M, there is no more actual poker playing, it becomes an ICM situation.
Speaking of which... (I hope I'm doing this correctly)
I'm putting you in the SB (cuz I don't know what position you were in) with 11000, BB with 10000. In this situation your EV fold is 40% EV push is 41.1% and your Diff is +1.1% ... this is a CLEAR push. Whereas calling the BB shove is -1.4%... clear fold. Depending on what position you were in and what the chipstacks were of the players in between, that number changes.
I dunno, I still say shove, but it's hard to say for sure without knowing all of the table dynamics. You will definitely get called a lot here, so expect to go home sometimes, and go on to win sometimes...

HighOnPoker said...

I'm with the alien. If your M is so low, just push. You may be concerned about running into superior hands, but after you raise, you are almost priced in to call anyway.

The other point I'd like to make is that your question assumes that you know, 100%, that he has AK. I'm ok with that assumption. However, now that you have the assumption, I'd say you definitely have to call there. Assuming you raised modestly preflop (3x for 3000 of your 1,100 stack), you now have to call 7,000 to win potentially 14,500 + the antes, which could be as much as 15,750 total. That's decent enough odds to call in this spot.

Of course, I'm still with the alien. If you really intended this to be a steal and you have les than 10x the BB, just push and pray.

lj said...

hey i'm playing saturday too. maybe i'll see you around! would be sick if we got same starting table!