Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Donk's paradise

Last night was the weekly 6max NL (Monday's at the Hoy) and I had an interesting tale unfold. I was playing pretty well and ran my stack from 3k up to 18k. Normally, this would put my squarely in first, but last night it was only good enough for third. As a matter of fact, the chip leader, lucko, had OVER twice my stack. There are maybe 22 players left and the points/cash start at 10... The stage is set...

Astin with about $4500 pushes from UtG. He is a short stack and the average stack is about 12k*, so this is just any pair. Let's estimate 66.

*lucko has made the average stack disproportionally higher for everyone else but him.

The button, with only about $5500 pushes his stack in, lets estimate AQ.

Why? Because we have AhKh in the BB.

Argurments for calling:
1. The sheer numberof times that the BB waking up with AK has knocked ME out of a tournament with a short stack.
2. Luck-o can't be caught up to without another infusion of chips.
3. I am getting 2-1 on my money with big slick.
4. If I LOSE the hand, I still have 500 chips above an average stack, far from out.

Arguments for folding:
1. I HATE taking any Ax hand all-in pot pre-flop against multiple opponents.
2. It's possible one of them has a top 3 hand, ruining my odds.
3. I am 3rd in chips and have been playing pretty well, especially post flop this evening. Why get my money in pre-flop and have to pray?

In the end, due to the luck-o factor, I called. Astin had 66, button has AK. No paint comes at all and Astin triples up and the button goes home.

I would lose one other 3 way pot on the way to the button and eventually go out 12th when luck-o wakes up with... Yup, AK.

So, I broke my rule of never calling 2 all-ins without a premium pair. Should I have folded or was I just a victim of a "donk's paradise"?

4 comments:

ElSnarfoGrande said...

What were the blinds/antes at this point? Or simply how desperate were the shorties?

I think with your recent mindsset change about playing to win vs cash this is a clear call. At a full or 8 handed table late in a tourny or with an average stack, you could advocate a fold, but getting those odds at a short table I don't see it. Not only can you fairly comfortably survive the hit but if you do win the hand, you are very close to the CL and have a big stack to use in a short handed game, a powerful weapon. Unless of course you are dam sure the button is only pushing a monster there but that doesn't seem to be the case.

And don't forget, they were sooooooooooted!

pokerpeaker said...

If you're playing to win, it's a good call because you're not behind much. I hear you about multiple people. I fold here in many situations. But if you are truly playing to win, you call.

crushmastac a.k.a. CheckinMyAA said...

Are you sure this hand wasn't against me? You opened AKs UTG, I shoved in MP, shortstacked button called all in, and you called. I had 66 and you both had AK and the board ran JT6 rag rag or something.

I likes me some sick gambooool when I'm struggling to build a stack.

Achiel said...

2-1 sounds pretty good with AKs but in reality it's only a pretty marginal call. If you run the numbers you'll see that you're only about a 36-38% to win vs Ax & 66 (or any other pair) and the same vs two underpairs (i.e. 77 and QQ).

In fact, the only scenario in which you have "good" odds (ie > 50%) is if they're both pushing Ax.

So, all in all I'd advocate the fold here. You tend to play a style in which you have the best of it when the money goes in, to me this scenario doesn't seem to fit.