Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Shallow Thoughts

In which I bubble not 1 or 2, but FOUR events over the last 2 days. Out of 4! Sad. Including a second place finish in the HOY, which paid just 1st. It happens, I know. But while digesting my results, I floated a hypothesis.

Let's say you were FORCED to play as follows:

Before the money:
1. Whenever you raise pre-flop and are re-raised, or two raises proceed your action, you must fold everything by AA, KK. If its raised once, you can call but only with position (up to say 3.5xBB)
2. Post flop, any bet by your opponent after the flop that would push the pot to 3X the pot size (at the opening of betting) forces you to fold without the current nuts. (You are free to do this, however. But if he re-raises, you are done.)
3. Being re-raised on the turn or river is an auto-fold. As is your opponent betting (VP$P) on the river > 1/2 pot(unless you have the nuts).

Now, if we played this way all the time, the theory is that your play would become predictably weak-tight and fast.

But, as with all things that are constraint-based, you can find ways to work with the constraints. For example:
1. To avoid this situation, raise at least 3.5x BB with premium holdings. Be glad to release non-premiums.
2. Make bets into a pot of 200 that try to force the pot size near 600. i.e., bet pot on flops where you wish to take it down. That way someone coming over the top forcing you to fold came over you with a pot size bet.
3. Make a pressure bet that you feel your opponent can only trump with a solid holding. avoid dark tunnel bets, especially on the river.

Ok, playing this way, what do you miss?
1. Value bets are off the table.
2. folding TPTK is going to happen.
3. You may not get full value post-flop when you catch an opponent with a second best hand. (Since you cant afford to bet 1/2 pot)
4. Setting up an image for later.
5. There is no escaping being card dead other than patience.

BUT, after you make the money, you can re-introduce value bets, slow-playing, walking the dog, floating bets, re-steals, and broken draw bluffing. i.e., change gears BIG TIME. If this is a giant field MTT, then instead of "making the money", you can change gears after >50% of the field is gone. But you would prefer, for the purposes of this discussion, to wait until 75% of the field is gone.

[results to follow]


Bayne_S said...

4 out of 4 bubbles sux.

But I don't think you want to ever play under rules of Hypothesis as in a 400 player MTT finishing in the Top 3 is worth at least 35 buyins and 4 bubble finishes are worth 6 or 7 buyins.

This is even more true on Stars where Final table is key.

columbo (at eifco dot org) said...

No, I don't either. Its just an experiment. But if you did, it would force you to get your money in first.