A disappointing showing to say the least in the NLHE event.
Here is the all too familiar scenario:
You are not getting any great run of cards, but are playing solid and after about an 90 minutes you have maybe 4500 in chips. This is about average. The big stack is 23k and there are a whopping 9000+ players LEFT. Blinds are 100/200 and you are forced to surrender both. You are now slightly below average. Terrible hands and active players force another lean rotation. You watch as the cutoff re-raises an MP raiser. The MP raiser shoves in 20 BB with TT only to be shown QQ and he is out.
Its the next hand....
MP limper, button (previous QQ winner now with 8k in chips) raises again to 597 (yup, not 600. this was his habit). You have TT in the BB.
My thought process:
Pot is 1100. I have an M of 10-15, so I am looking for good spots, but not in a panic.
If I fold here, that is way too tight.
If I Call here, I have to play a middle pair OOP. After the flop, I EXPECT to see at least 1 over card. With 4200 in chips, calling 600 puts my stack at 3600 and First action. If I check, I have to expect a c-bet of 900 (into 1700). If I bet (800 ish) as a feeler/blocking/am I ahead? bet, he can simple call, which almost but but not quite commits me to the hand (1400 of 4200 invested).
If I raise here, I can end the hand now or I can take down the pot with a c-bet if 2/3 of the time. (assuming he does not have AA/KK). My raise would be to 1200 (leaving 3000 behind).
I decide I like the 3rd option here and make it 1200.
And its here I make a fatal mistake. I call. There is no way I am good here. He shows KK.
Now, if we BACK UP to the pre-flop decision and think about why I REALLY wanted to raise instead of call...
Its because I dont feel I can play small ball with TT in this spot. I have an M of 14 to start the hand and I let the fact that there are 9000+ players also influence me. How can I continue to bleed chips and hope to win this thing vs. so many players???
Either I can get dealt QQ and KK numerous times (as was the case with my opponent I would find out), or I can take some volatility to keep my M>20. and I decided to play it that way. It did not work out and I went camping.
(btw, the flop was all under cards!)
I talked to a very good player, and he says that he calls. But if he did raise like I did, that he would not fold to the 4 bet. Obviously, I must have agreed.
IF my M is 20+, this is an easy CALL pre-flop with escape route already mapped out.