Stud hand FROM HELL

I am not a GREAT stud player, but I understand the basic premise. EXTRACTION. This is a game of punishing players for thinking that they might be ahead, when in fact, they are behind. I am in a field of 72 and I am in the top 12 the entire tournament. But with 24 or so left, this happens.

I am dealt (KK)7. After I bet, I get a call from (xx)K. Now, I HAVE to think he has a pocket pair here and not the case K. But get this. On 4th street, he is dealt a seemingly dead 7. Another player FOLDED a 7 and there is only one left other than this.

So, I have (KK)79 and he has (xx)K7. I HAVE to assume that he has a pocket pair like QQ or JJ or TT here because he thinks he is ahead, but not recklessly like with AA.

On 5th street, my alarm goes off and I go to check-call mode. BUT HOW CAN I BE BEHIND? And am I an idiot for going into check-call when I think I should be ahead?

He turns over the case King AND the case 7 for Kings up. I never improved and he takes what I considered my pot.

2/3 of my stack gone and the next hand I run my short stack QQx into what turns out to be AAx and just like that I went out.

BUT, I THINK I played well. ???

The trouble with reading players

There are too many variables for me to be reading players with only 2 years experience. So, I have come up with a set of metrics that I am going to try in an attempt to reduce the amount of information I have to process prior to a final table.

Here is want I want to know about each player:

1. What does his preflop raise mean? Better than avg hand? First into pot? speculative hand pot builder? LAG?

2. Post-Flop, what does a weak lead mean from him? And If I am out of position, what does a smooth call typically mean from him? Is a weak lead weak, or does he play backwards? Does he smooth call to attempt to play pots away or is a smooth call a big hand?

3. What is his correlation between VP$IP and Showdown %??? When he bets, is he going to war?

fun with armchair psychology

Today's lessons is Stocastic Reasonance. This painful concept/theory postulates the idea that more noise does not disguise patterns, but rather makes them more identifiable.

In effect, if you sit at the poker table with little or no regard to how much you are moving, gesturing, talking, etc. the added noise makes it EASIER to pick up tells from you. This seems counterintuitive, as does the opposite postulate that no noise has the same effect.

In order to best disguise our tells, we should keep "noise" to a minimum, but not eliminate it altogether.

Now, go wash your brain out.

WPBT event

In case you don't read the WPBT calendar, the next event (PLO8) is at Full Tilt on October 1st at 9pm. $20+2. Password is, of course, known to you all. Bloggers only, please. (I am working on a banner right now)

The world is full of choices

I have recently made some very bad ones:

1. I missed "Bash at the Boathouse" because I was already committed to other plans. This "other plan" turned out to be spending 2 days in the pouring rain in the middle of friggin' nowhere with a bunch of people (most of which I do not know) being rustic and eating organic foods. WTF?! Chance of repeating said mistake: ZERO %
(The F-Train photos say it all http://www.flickr.com/photos/ftrain/sets/72157594298443046/ )
Cut me a small amount of slack here as we thought this "other plan" was a very kid friendly event. Pouring rain in October is rarely kid friendly.

2. I lost a buy-in last night when I lost control of my patience and on a ragged flop of 872, pushed a guy with TT. After a pause, he took all my money with KK. But HOW did it happen? Simple. I am not THINKING at the table, just playing. I am going to fix that once and for all. I have an idea I am going to try. I am going to call out (at my screen or write it down), everytime someone else does something, why I think they did it. It will force me to return to poker as a thinking game and not a game of mechanical choices.

3. Add one more thing to the list of things that drives me crazy: People who load napkins into napkin holders backwards. Are there really people that need to be TRAINED that one way the napkin comes out and one way it does not!?

4. I really want to throw some props to the crew that runs ABC's LOST. The summer clue hunt (or whatever they called it) did a nice job of letting some of the bigger fans (I am just a tag-along poser) learn the purpose of the number sequence and why the island and initiative exists. Add that to the knowledge that Abrams was a big fan of "The Prisoner" (available at netflix, you will not regret it) and you understand the last episode of season 2 in complete clarity. I like the moral question posed though. If you could save the world, but had to murder 1/3 of the people to do it, could you?

I Guess That's Why They Call It the Blues

My game is painful to watch right now. Like Steve Martin in The Jerk trying to keep rhythm with a blues song painful. Why? Why oh Why?

Rhetorical really. I know the answer. I am playing MECHANICALLY. I am so emotionally detached during play, that I marginalize decisions.

Last night I played in the Ante-Up event and had TPTK on a board of like K622. Someone puts me all in and I am sure he did not play 32. But he did play K6. But there is some bad jojo coming my way too. With my remaining stack I push with 99 and on a board of Q32, somehow get called by TT. Good call? Sure, but it was my short stack that probably enticed it as much as someone reading me as “tilting”, which I did not.

After getting knocked out, instead of watching, I played a HORSE SnG and finished 2nd. I should stick to HORSE as I have a good understanding of where I am at in less volatile games. It never ceases to amaze me that no matter how tight I play 7Stud, I get a caller when I do play a hand. Um, thanks?

Then I watched Phil Helmuth and Mike the Mouth get knocked out of day 1 of the WSOP and Daniel almost tilt in frustration. I guess it happens to everyone.

I want to eet sum frozen yogurt

Distractions in life = distractions in game. Too many things in my head when I sit down at the table. I notice that my results are shifting also. More of the "out early or in the money" type results. Not the usual for me. Why? I think its because I am simplifying my decisions because I am distracted. Not good.

I am watching cartoons (I LOVE cartoons, always have), football, reality TV (amazing race, survivor, heck even Gene Simmons), building a PC WHILE playing poker on it. Way too much at once.

Tonight, I am going to play in the Ante-up! game. I intend to CONCENTRATE. Like Paul Phillips on Ritalin concentration.

Still, you can't help but notice that momentum of poker is slowing (this is not a bad thing, dont yell at me!) as the sites are expanding game types. And the WCOOP at Stars (and each site has some sort of equivalent) just dont interest me. I like the challenge of the (20 table MTT). Who wants 100 tables? Not me.

One last scary comment: The more random the deck, the LESS realistic it is. When you play poker at a physical table with cards, they are shuffled in a way that is limited by the laws of physics and time. An electronic deck can be truly random. Like it or not, its DIFFERENT and thus behaves DIFFERENTLY. It's not "rigged", but it IS different.

Right or Wrong pre-flop

I don't care how many people lecture me or cry foul. There is no RIGHT or WRONG pre-flop, only CONSEQUENCES.

If I decide to play J8o from late position and crack KK, I did not make a RIGHT OR WRONG decision pre-flop. I simply decided to accept the consequences of seeing that flop. What I do from THAT POINT can be right or wrong, sure. If I miss the flop and don't let it go, again its my fault. But accepting the consequences and seeing a flop, there is nothing WRONG about it.

And for those players out there who don't understand this, let me make it even more clear. What kind of player pushes all in with KK on a board of QT98 and 3 hearts just because I could not possibly have J8 in LP??? The one busting out of the tournament...

What's worse is the guy at the same table who does this 20 hands later, despite watching it happen to this poor sod.

PokerStars Tournament No Limit Hold'em
Buy-In: $4.00/$0.40
180 players
Total Prize Pool: $720.00

Dear Columbo,

You finished the tournament in 3rd place.

Who Are You? (who who, who who)

Once in a great while, I lift the veil of the secrecy off my life and post something that is not poker related. Well, today is one of those far off days. Please forgive this glimpse into my personal psyche. Avert your eyes for your own safety.

The List of Things I currently can not remain silent about due to fact that I have had it up to here (holds hand above head) with them:

1. Bands that do "chill-out" versions of 80s songs. Electronic chill-out is for relaxing, not recycling Michael Jackson songs.

2. That left side door that is always locked despite the fact that it is a perfectly good door just like the one on the right! Is it too hard to unlock BOTH doors? What is it, a LATCH? How hard is that?

3. People who attend an event and bitch about how it was not as good as they would have liked it, despite their complete lack of experience in throwing any similar event. Applaud the effort for Pete's sake.

4. Digital Rights Management. Granted, this is a technology specific complaint, but how can ANY good come of this? A VCR is ok but a better VCR is not? WTF? And this "right to use" crap. I love that if I buy a DVD or piece of software and it becomes damaged, I am OBLIGATED to REPLACE IT through a second purchase of the SAME THING I ALREADY BOUGHT!!! Even this guy who wrote poker inspector is playing hardball with my license code because I lost 4 hard drives in 3 years (IS THAT REALLY THAT FAR FETCHED?!?!) so in his infinite wisdom has requested that I REPURCHASE the program. WTF? Like I crafted a story in order to rip the guy off for $30?! In the immortal words of Jerry Seinfeld, "Who are these people"?

5. Foreign Call Centers. Not sure I can say anything here that is not obvious. But still, let me state it has to do with the remote location not the ethnicity. If your call center is not a part of your business, nor is it in close contact and proximity of your business, the customer service is GOING TO BE POOR. There is no way that people half way around the world can properly troubleshoot my DSL line, nor can they competently escalate due to the fact that they are by all indications and labels, a COST REDUCTION CENTER. AND, There are few things in life more annoying than those automated call avoidance systems that one needs to navigate through for NO APPARENT REASON. One of the few things that IS more annoying is having to navigate through a call center technician, who has access to a vast array of knowledge bases and FAQs, and have no actual chance in hell of actually helping me but has been trained to exhaust all possible (and apparently INPROBABLE) avenues before admitting that someone with a TECHNICAL UNDERSTANDING of the product they sell is necessary.

6. Purchasing something at Best Buy. I wait in line LONGER than at the grocer? How is that even possible? Could I even design a store that could properly lend itself further towards actually feeling like waiting for a ride at cedar point?

Well, I could go on all day, but then I would become #7...

could not lay a hand down

Despite it being early in the tournament, despite knowing that my opponent had pocket Kings, I just could not bring myself to lay my hand down. I had a dismal showing in my first "Mookie" tournament and I have to hang my head in shame going out on the first hand I played.

No matter how good I am, I can't read the future well enough to lay down AA pre-flop.
A King on the flop and its off to watch TV.

The proverbial drawing board

Here is one of the great tidbits I got from a book recently:

When stacks are shallow, play strong draws strong. Weaks draws are let go.
When stacks are DEEP, play strong draws weak and weak draws strong.

Let that last part sink in a second.

Now, why?

Well, Deep stack NL is about TRAPPING. Your strong draw implied odds go up with each caller who "hangs around". Even in a tournamnet where survival counts, this is a risk worth taking. When the draw is weak, (much like in situations where you have a hand unlikely to improve) you need to bet to win. And weak bets do not win pots, strong bets do.

Oh,

And Daniel's analysis of the guy playing TT is a must listen. Its in this weeks edition of the Ante-Up! podcast.

weekend recap

ok, so for once there is not much to report about poker. But after a 3 days weekend featuring camping with the family, here are some interesting tidbits:

1. Horseshoes may look stupid... and it is. Simply watching someone throw, emulating it, and adjusting to the weight, was enough to beat a guy who had his own horseshoe pit. I even hit a ringer. Gez, worse than darts.

2. Lord Admiral has signed off. Permanently. :(

3. The Columbo One Minute Mystery has moved. Here is the home page for ANTE-UP!: http://myspace.com/anteuppoker
and here is the podcast:
http://www.tampabay.com/podcasts/player/anteup/index.shtml

4. A successful fishing trip means your hands smell like fish for atleast 4 hours. It doesn't matter how long you wash them.

5. I read the new NO LIMIT book by Skalansky/Miller. Very late at night, with no one around, in the eerie quiet of the woods, Skalansky made some sense. Then the next morning, I again found the "contradictions" in the book he is famous for. Despite this, I found it a VERY informative read.

6. I think this article is geared towards intermediate players who are willing to concentrate for long periods of time at a table to get better. I have it bookmarked.
http://www.pocketfives.com/851BCEAD-B7AE-4035-9409-4BBFF23613DC.aspx

7. No matter how much I read, I still find no evidence that one should do anything in the first two levels of a tournament without 2 pair or better post-flop.

8. I played golf for the first time in YEARS. Amazingly, I borrowed a 5 Wood that was actually metal. It made a beautiful "ting" sound when I hit the ball. As a matter of fact, I hit better drives than I EVER did when I played regularly. What is in these metal clubs anyway, magic?

The “Sweat Spot” of Tournament Strategy

Forget the original Kobayashi Naru scenario of calling an all-in with pocket Kings in the first round of the WSOP. Let’s raise the bar on our scenario…

How is it that you can play a perfect tournament, only to eventually get hit with a beat that sends you home? Believe it or not, it is closely tied to why so many online players have been dominating tournaments in the last 3 years. There is a new Axiom of poker, “In order to survive being right, you must also have your opponent covered”.

Let’s say I play perfect poker and I only get my money in the pot when I am 4-1 or better to win. Sounds great doesn’t it? But, is it really? Let’s explore shall we?

TWENTY percent of the time, my opponent is going to get that King on the river and beat me with his “3 outs twice”. And with the blinds going up, you need to invest in pots where you are 4-1 to win. And 1 out of 5 times, you need to be able to survive losing a big pot. Which means having enough chips to survive it.

Now, how do you accumulate that type of insurance stack? Unfortunately, the only was is to take risks when you are NOT a big favorite. The new breed of internet players do this. And here is the funny thing, it works because of the QUANTITY of players, not quality. If 5 people act stupid, 1 of them is sure to benefit. And if 50 of them are stupid, and you are playing smart, as they bust out to other stupid players, you are not the one accumulating the chips. The guy getting all his money in behind with middle pair and getting lucky is.

So, you play a perfect game and make the bubble as the short stack. Or simply take a “bad beat” and lose your stack at a critical time where you got your money in way ahead.

So, can you compensate for this by playing a lot more hands in early rounds? Some players do this. The “accumulate chips or go home early” strategy. In effect, moving down to their level.

Here is what separates the good from the great. Being able to extract someone’s stack while being marginally ahead and taking them along for the ride (especially on a draw). Which, ironically, SMACKS IN THE FACE the old adage that you can’t do this in tournament games where survival is at the utmost. You need to take advantage of the edges that are presented to you post-flop. This is why in the “middle rounds” of the tournament, its important to bet (whenever you are ahead) the right amount. The amount that dictates that your opponent is wrong if he calls you, yet is not large enough to scare him off. You need to bet the “sweat spot”.

The big BIG draw

I am playing in an impromtu blogger cash game ($.01/$.02) and I see a flop from the blind with 2d5d. The flop is Ad4d and something else. I dont recall, but it was not a diamond. Somehow, while I am half paying attention, Drizz gets all his money into the pot. I go into the tank and type in the chat window, "I have a big draw". I pause and decide to call what amounts to 400 Big Bets. The turn is the 3d.

Donkey's always draw... and the payout is HUGE.

It's Quiet around here for a REASON

I have not played poker in two weeks. Well, at least not MUCH. Last week, I finished 7th (outof 45) in my monthly game. This is ok, but considering my last 3 finishes, this was a welcome rebound. And, I played well. The next day, I went down to the casino. Despite being 30 minutes from one, I rarely go. Here is why.

I get on the list for the NL beginner table ($1/$2, $50 min, $100 max). TEN, yes TEN handed. I am seated to the left of the dealer. Seat two is a standard player.(more on him later). Seat three was INVISIBLE. Played ZERO hands. Seat 4&5 were weak/tight. Seat 6 was a call junkie who JUST doubled up his short stack after I sit down. I can tell he is going to exit first, despite just doubling up. Seat 7 is the token rotating seat of bad players. Seat 8 is a player who plays any two suited and looks for the flush. (more on this later). Seat 9 has a stack of about $500 in front of him. YET, he did not play a single hand past the turn then ENTIRE 2.5 hours I was there. (more on why this worked later). Seat 10 was a weak/ tight who like to see flops in position and then bet if everyone checked. Yes, that was his actual STRATEGY.

So, I watch these guys play and realize that to be profitable, that I would have to play vanilla TAG (tight aggreessive). I played TWO hands the first half hour, winning them both. The player to my left actually says,"I am not playing a hand with you. If you raise, I fold." Remeber this quote.

I also notice that the standard raise of 5xBB was NOT enough to get the "play any two flush" or other draw hands to fold. My sneaky mind comes up with a new plan.

I get JT and raise it not to 10, but to 15. I get TWO callers. The flop is JJx. I make a SMALL bet and I get a call from Mr. Short stack. The turn is a T and even my token bet folds him. I smile and realize how to just punish these guys at no risk.

With My AQ I make it $20 and get TWO callers (both the DRAW players at the far end of the table). I make a contiuation bet and they both fold. Why? They did not flop a straight or flush draw. You see, ALL FREAKING NIGHT, ever player at the table PAID these guys off when they hit. Well, all except me. I never fell for it. But the others did CONTINUOUSLY. So, they would call almost ANY preflop raise. And I could take their money 2/3 of the time. If they called the flop bet, I would just shut down.

30 minutes later, when I get KK on the BUTTON and the usual limpers are in. I make it $25 (yes, really $25) to go. The player on my left, KNOWING I play big hand and after SAYING he would not play hands with me, CALLS my $25. The others fold. When the flop comes, I immediatly bet out $75. Almost daring him to call. Nevermind I flopped a SET of Kings, I had a strategy and I was sticking to it. You see a flop with me, you pay me. He folded his...get this, 88. he called $25 cold with 88 figuring that he could break me if he flopped a set. In the meantime, I had now doubled my buy-in and left.

The bad part, took over 2 hours to do it. I only played 10 hands all night.

Last week I was in Utah and I dont play cards with my work laptop. So, that was that. Camping on the weekend and a new PC to assemble has kept me on the sideline. But, hope springs eternal and I think I may play in a local tourney tonight.

Snakes on a PLANE

Even before I could walk into the movie theater to see the most relevant movie since Tremors, I bought the T-Shirt. Now I own a total of TWO t-shirts. SOAP and the RAMONES (rip. I miss them.)

FT 25k recap

Entered with a peep sex token

1443 players

In levels 1&2 only played post flop with big hands. One was nice, flopped nut straight and he doubled me up...

Level 3, I am the chip leader

Level 4, I play 6d7d from MP and the flop is 3d8cTd. I have a gut shot and a flush draw for 11 outs (no overs). There is 1K in the POT and the other player goes all-in for another 1k. At this point I have 8.5k of my 9k left (500 invested). Do I call? No. SHOULD I call???? I got alot of opinions here, most of them yes.

I was about 40% to win the hand assuming my outs were pure. (If he was on a BIGGER flush draw, then I basically have 3 pure outs (9 if he has like AKs) and I am probably behind). If he is not on a draw, then I am 40% to win 3-1 and should call. I read him as Ad8d and therefore could not call, thus saving myself any embarrassment from responses to this post.

At the break I am 13th, my M is 47 and my Q is 2.6

I am folding alot through a card dead phase. At the 80/160 level I am 23/579 (135 pays).

Called a raise from the blind with T9o. Hit the T for top pair but its an ALL heart board. I bet pot though and he calls all-in with just the A of hearts. More chips for me.

Made a min raise with 89o and just the blinds call. Flop the ever loving nuts on a rainbow board. 567 rainbow. I make a min bet and the BB comes over the top for 1/2 his stack. I quickly go all-in remembering a trick I heard from a pro interview where he said he bet quickly before the guy had a chance to process the information. Sure enough, he calls and I am 4th out of 456 left.

Antes start

AKo raise preflop, continuation bet of 1/3 pot and he comes over the top BIG. I fold.

I watch as KK vs AA happen 3 times at my table. No hands with me though.

I get moved again. 150/300/25 and I am 28th/319

Second break. 16/230

I flop bottom pair on a AT7 board. I play WAY too passively and let 88 take it from me.

QQ 2 hands later and use my weak play indicating that if I bet I must have something
when KJx flops. I bet like I have the K and he folds.

156 left and I fold KJo pre-flop to a raise from my right.

UtG Ako (UGH)
I make a min raise of 2xBB (this was a mistake, I KNOW)
button and BB call.
flop is 334 and BB checks, I check and button OVERBETS the pot. FOLD.

Lose 2k to BB short stack when I try to steal his blind and it goes bad. He wakes up with AK.

INTERESTING HAND ALERT 400/800
We are at the bubble. MP short stack goes all in for 3k. Stack DIRECTLY to his right with 4k also goes all-in. I have AKo and decide to CALL. I should RAISE here, but I call. Then, the BUTTON calls.
The flop is 332. I check (with 2 all ins)
and HE BETS (as sure sign I am beat)
he flips up 66, and the two all-ins flip up QQ and AQ.
the 66 player apologized for betting after the hand. "he forgot not to".
(the ace or king did NOT fall on the turn or river).

But thanks to that hand, I am back to AVERAGE. Now, the old me would have NEVER played a hand with 2 all-ins in front of him. And I think I should not have played this one... BUT, I did have a 50/50 chance of winning 4 TIMES my investment. How can I be sorry I played the hand?

In the money. I am 49/130

Play 44 for a 2xBB raise (TOO SMALL AT THIS POINT) and get called by the BB. flop is 6QQ and I decide to bully him if he checks. When he checks, I push and he calls showing Q6. The CASE queen falls on the river to mock me.

running good?

played the FT 25k last night. 1433 players, I finished 106th. I was chip leader at one point and after the bubble, lost two hand where I was atleasdt 50/50 to double or even triple up. I'll post more on this later and how the game went in comparison to my rules-set.

but for now, I am Chore-Dad (tm) since the family is off camping. I have a week to clean the house (and throw stuff away without an arguement), repair the deck, prime my daughter's room, build a new play-set (those giant wooden ones) AND do some other minor maintenance items. I am tired. But my poker league is on Wed, so I get a break.

Interesting thing about the league. I no longer play for points (in my mind). I play for the win and ignore the fact that I should in 3 of the 6 events just fold as long as possible.

Why are I running better right now? I am not playing scared. At all. More on that when I post the Hands-of-Interest (tm).

Armchair psychology and Tournament poker – wrap up

Final Thoughts:

1. How does one control aggression so that a player can be aggressive without getting into trouble?

Well, I think that is all about POT selection, not hand selection. You need to be opportunistic and keep up appearances.

2. You must have a goal for a hand (risk reward formula). And your goal should /should not be predictable depending on your holding.

I play TT from MP (3xBB raise) and flop a set on a SAFE board. I had 3 callers from LP, BUTTON and BB. Now what? Do I BET or CHECK? Assuming that your opponents do NOT expect you would check a big hand, then you check. If they have witnessed a pattern of you checking big hands, then you must play it backwards and bet. But you make this decision not on the fact that you have a set and are second to act (this is not limit), but rather which bet will extract the most money based on psychology.

3. A table develops a profile personality which should change your play in the final stages. Once you get to the end game, each player will make a decision to play certain hands. But overall the TABLE now develops a profile. You can gain an edge by playing the opposite of the table profile. i.e. playing against the grain.

4. If I do all this and do it correctly, what can I assume about an opponent’s raises?

Well, if you have the proper image, it can be weighed against the following 4 possibles:
a. They want to Take-it-down now because hey are worried, i.e. feel unsafe.
b. They raise a Pot size bet because they are ahead, but at risk.
c. They are attempting to ‘go for your stack’. (they are WAY ahead or have a BIG draw)
d. They are making a mistake or a bluff. And you have to read which one.

When d. occurs, you should think back to this question: “Based on how *I* played the hand, does he think he is ahead or behind.” This "level 3 thinking" will let you pick off a bluff.

Well, that's my brain dump. Now I have to implement...

Armchair psychology and Tournament poker – V

"Is it safe?!" - A well known dentist (marathon man)

Get your opponents in a very uncomfortable place and take advantage of them. Isolation increases odds and reduces volitility. Position allows us to pick our situations easier. And PRESSURE, when we have someone under diress, causes REACTIVE thinking instead of strategic adjustment. And THAT is what we want. This is why concentration is so important. This is why the game gets harder as we go on. This is why players talk about the 3rd level of thinking. Its all about being able to push a psychological edge in a hand, not a 55/45 edge.

When you have a conversation with someone, and it deteriorates into an argument, its because they moved to fight/flight because the conversation is no longer comfortable (or safe) for them. Stated another way, your opponent makes his final choice on a hand at the moment he no longer feels safe. (for those of you who think this is similar to doubleas theories on pressure poker, I agree. The man is a great card player, buy his book. But I want to take it one step further.) This is not about the pressure point (which is measured by doubleas in stacks and bet size) but the psychological equivalent of that measurement in that little mental treadmill in the opponents head. Has he chosen a path at the fork yet? No, they he feels safe. Did we push him to the fork? Then he must make a fight or flight choice. If you are pounding a guy to death, he might make the choice in ADVANCE of the cards being dealt that the next time you play a hand with him, he is going to try and slap you pack. This negates to some degree the ability to apply pressure with a bet or stack size. See?

The recipical is true also. It is easier for you to "risk" when you feel in control and harder when you feel "outflanked". This is a good reason why a pro often can smack around a new player even if he is a good player. It is also the reason so many young players are winning tournaments. We call them "fearless", but a longer winded person :) might say that they never REACT, they are always instead manipulating you to where you are making the fight/flight choices and they are creating the situations. (Because the dispense with subtely and baggage and emotion and even sometimes thinking. But to every strategy is a counter, and this one has its weakness too. The will be susceptable to distractions and attracked to big pots like a moth to a fire.)

You need to feel safe. You need you opponent to be uncomfortable everytime you play a hand with them and are not sure you have a lock on the pot. After years of this, you should be able to steer their choice. And then, suddenly, you are Phil Hellmuth.
Love him or hate him, Phil know this like he knows how to breathe.