Pride and Prejudice

Now that I have calmed down, I am taking stock in my frustrations. Why are they there? Is the playing field not level with the deal of the cards? Why do I feel at a disadvantage. Then it hit me. Statistics. Let me explain.

You are sitting at a table of 10 players. A "rotation" is ten hands. How many hands should you WIN? Note that I said, "win" and not "play".

I always assume the answer is 1. I should win 1 hand in 10. The problem is that the curve just is not working that way. Because the odds of making a hand are against you on each hand, and sometimes you fold a hand that would hit the board, you often find yourself playing 1-2 hands per 10 (if you're loose enough) and winning NONE of them. That's right. Frekaing ZERO. ZED. NULL. So, we instinctively try to force it. And that's where we stay amateurs. I am starting to realize something (and yet another peice of the puzzle falls into place)... There are opportunities to play hands away from others based on this same model. The trick is to recognize the pattern.

For example, player A from MP raises to 3xBB. two callers. The flop is XXX. player A makes a bet of 1/2 the pot. The other guy folds. Now, as the sole remaining player, there are THREE scenarios.

1. He hit the board
2. He missed the board
3. Regardless of #1 and #2, he has a vulnerable hand.

Now, since 2 and 3 are far more common than #1 (66% vs 33% ish), many a LAG (loose agressive player) is successful in exploiting this and getting players to fold. If they get played back at, they can then decide what to do.

I find it hard to recognize the situation in all cases, but look at a hand. I raise it to 4xBB with JJ from MP. I get TWO callers. The flop is KQ2. I am forced to either bet out or check. Since I may be able to win without resistance, I am forced to bet out, about half the pot. One of the other two comes over the top all-in. There is no way I can call. So was it right to bet? well, before you answer, forget the books for a second and REALLY put some thought into it. IS IT RIGHT TO BET OUT THERE with shallow stacks in a one table SNG? Can I really think or even represent the best hand with this flop? I think my bet was a "dark tunnel" bet and I was throwing money away.

BUT, if the flop was 993. I HAVE to bet out. I may very well have the best hand, right? So, I bet out half the pot. And guess what? I will get called or raised by a 9. But this time its ok, since I needed to know that. In the previous hand, I did not need to know where I was because I ALREADY KNEW.

Summary: I am not treating my chips like ammunition, I am going through "progressions" or choices like a struggling 2nd string QB on the football field. When I fire at a pot, I need to have a SPECIFIC purpose in mind.

This is why the "young guns" who play this game well and never read a book can be good players. They instinctively know where they are at and fire their ammunition accordingly.

Now, my complaints of being card dead lately may still seem real, but its more likely that I am betting too much on hands where I am ahead, and wasting chips on information I do not need.

At least that is my latest theory. After all, no theory, no hope.