Monday, April 24, 2006

Riddle me this, Batman

Today I am going to put forth an interesting Poker riddle:

It is a halfway (90 out) through a 180 MTT. You are in MP with QQ and its folded around to you. You raise to 4xBB-5xBB (some amount slightly larger than 3xBB). The button, thinking for a while, calls. You put him on either A9-AQ or 99-TT. For this sake of argument, lets include KK because he is always cautious with KK.

Lets same this player is TYPICAL. By that he makes logical decisions based on being reasonably solid.

The flop is A65 (rainbow just to simplify the issue).

You are now FTA.

Scenario 1: Your Q is .5 and his is 3. He makes this call knowing that 40% of your stack is committed already.

Scenario 2: Your Q is 1 and his is 1. He makes the call for unknown reasons

Scenario 3: Your Q is 3 and his is .5 and its midway through a MTT

Scenario 4: Same as scenario 2 but he TELLS you before the flop he has AT.

In which scenarios do you Check, which do you Bet, and which do you PUSH?
And if you PUSH in scenario 1, what is your EV? Positive or Negative?


Matt said...

I think a great blog to talk about the nomenclature you mention in this post.

I have read lots of poker books, but not Harrington's. I think this is where it comes from.

What you normally hear from Harrington's book is the 'M' (I think) that is how many rounds of blinds you have left.

Can you expain what you mean with the numbers, .5, 1, 3 etc.


PokerLongShot said...

Columbo, Your analysis would give me paralysis. The tighty/whity strategy keeping it simple works for me.

columbo (at eifco dot org) said...

Q is the ratio of the average stack of the tournament to your stack. So if the avg chip stack is 1000 and you are at 1100, your Q is 1.1

When my stack is less than average size (Q<1.0) I will push marginal edges. When my Q>1, I will avoid races or calling big preflop raises.