Monday, March 29, 2010

Can you make this fold?

Call a raised pre-flop bet in just level 1 or 2 with 77. 3 see the flop.

Flop is 789 (2 clubs). check, I bet pot. Button shoves. Other guy folds.

Now, I am SURE he has either TT or a club draw. Lets say 100% just for clarity.

And lets say you have about 400 in the pot, and 22 behind.

When he shoves, can you fold knowing you are the favorite because its hour 1?

(*by the way, he did have TT. So its 10 outs (2 tens, 4 sixes, 4 jacks) twice or 40%-ish.)


matt tag said...

if you KNOW it's TT or a club draw, then you can't make this fold, nor should you. You're a 2-1 favorite.

Hour 1 or not, i don't think folding when you know you're a 2-1 favorite is ever correct. You usually don't have it much better.

Wel said...

I know MTT's are about survival but you cant make this fold... Your 60% is good enough against his 1010 and if he has a club draw some of his outs are gone... just scream "HOLD" or "ONE TIME" and hope you come out the winner...

Memphis MOJO said...

Easy call. Deals like this are how you win tournaments. Someone like Phil Helmuth may lay it down, not me.

Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

You didn't mention the buyin of this event, or what the blinds structure is like and how deep the stacks are, etc.

Generally speaking, assuming this is one of your $26 buyin full tilt online tournaments, I would not fold the set in that spot, no. If one guy is all in and then the next guy is all in over the top there, then I would give strong consideration to folding with bottom set on a 3-straight flop. But the one allin is an overpair or a pair plus straight draw far too often in this spot to fold the set in my view. For $26 and a donkish online structure I am willing to go to the felt with it. And remember you do have 10 redraws to a boat on the river even if he hits on the turn and you do not.

And matt tag is right, if you say you know he has TT or a draw then you have really just answered your own question, unless you're playing extremely deep and in an extremely slow structured event.

columbo (at eifco dot org) said...

Fair enough. I made the call and he did show TT with a club and made a 1 card flush. Most unexpected. But I thought my call was justified, even this early.