Tuesday, August 09, 2005

Why holdém will be the death of poker

That's right, I said it. This poker bubble has to burst. Why? Because eventually, everyone gets competent enough to play the game and understand what they are doing. And that's going to make them mad. Let's face it, the learning curve is the shortest of all the poker games. You don't have to memorize cards like in stud or razz, and it lacks the complexity of Omaha. Anyway, what's my point? just this. Eventually everyone will get sick of the suckouts. I mean, last night I am playing in a tournament in ROUND 1 with DEEP stacks. Now, there is a player in seat 7 who likes to steal pots when they get big by making a huge raise. He has done it TWICE already and its LEVEL 1. So, I get AQs in late position. He is UtG and limps as do 3 others. With 4 limpers, I push up my typical raise from 3xBB to 4xBB. He pauses and comes over the top for $1800. (I made it $240 to go just so you have an idea). I can almost see this guys cards...

Either he has AJ/AT or he has put me on JJ/TT and he is willing to race with his AQ. Now, since I HAVE AQ, I figure he must have the AJs here (or TT, but I really believe he is bullying with marginal cards). He would not limp with TT or AK. But this guy might with Ax. So, if my read is right, I have him stone cold. (by the way, NEVER limp with AJ. NEVER. Its such a hard hand to play, you need to thin the field or see if you are dominated right away.)

I raise to $3600 and he goes all in for $12k. ITS LEVEL FREAKING ONE. But I am firm that my read is right and I call. He flips over AJ and everyone at the table expells a sign of relief that he'll be taken out.

Until he hits his 5-1 dog.

Eventually, players will have had enough and just stop playing. That's the way it is with recreational booms. People play until they get sick of it, and then its just over. And people are going to get sick of it. Because they remember the big suckouts.

ok, so only the recreational player is going away... What's wrong with that? Well, then the domino effect kicks in. Watch the card rooms shrink again...

No comments: