I am playing in an 80 or so player $10 tournament last night (NLHE). On the very first hand I flop the nut straight and one guy flops the ass-end straight. I double up and maybe my luck is changing. I get a couple of pocket pairs and they hold up and I am the chip leader...
I isolate a short stack and when the board comes garbage, I push all in figuring he can't call. But he can with KK. (The push was too many chips, as 375 would have been enough to pot committ him or know I was beat.) I dump 800 chips here and fall to 8th, but I am still above average. I then bleed for a while. Just before the break I am at 2600 and the avg is 2300. Still in good shape, but I am looking to win this thing and my reads have been fairly good.
Now a tight player raises to 3x UTG and all fold to me in the BB with 55. Now I had folded A9o earlier to a 4xBB WHEN I WAS THE CHIP LEADER and could afford to speculate and missed out on a A9x flop. So, I make a call, hoping for a rag board. And I get one! 23T RAINBOW. With $400 in the pot, I make a token bet of $100. He moves all in for 95% of my stack. I figure him for either a mid pair (scared of overs) or a push with overs like AK, AQ. Despite his tightness, I just can not figure an all in until the turn with an over pair and why do this with 99 if a T flops? I use up my entire time bank guessing between 99 and AK. And nagging me in the back of my mind is "will I fold this just because I am so unlucky lately?". It was the latter thought that made me call out of spite. I spit at the thought of luck, I always have. UNLIKE most people, "I would rather be right than be lucky" is my saying. So, I make the call and sure enough he has AK. Now, I am ahead here and the flop has already come. He has 6 outs x 2% x2 or 24%. I am a 3 to 1 favorite. Actaully slightly less as I am blindsided by the moving bus called runner runner QJ.
I have $500 left and ON THE VERY NEXT HAND get 76 on the button. Since there were 5 limpers, the pot is good and I figure instead of going all in, let see if I can win a big pot. The flop is 678 and someone here has flopped TP. When I bet, rest assured that an A8 is the caller. Sure enough, I get a caller and we are all in. Imagine my LACK of surprise when the caller is 8-2 and the turn is the 2.
I dont have any deep analysis here. I continue to play well and I continue to get beat. End of story. I guess? Maybe? I get myself in 3 to 1 positions for all my chips with my tournament life at stake. I cant believe that I can fold there and be a winning player. right?
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