da mookie

The Scenario:

We are at level 6 or 7? and I have a Q of .95. I THINK my M is about 10-15, but I am 16th in chips right now (about mid field). (This is all from memory).

I get Jd3d in the BB and an MP min raised. The player to his right calls. I fold too many blinds as it is, so I always look at opportunities to see a flop in the BB. I decide to take this one. The flop is an Ace and two diamonds.

In a tournament, if you play tight, there are a few opportunities that are special. They are not just pots, they are lead changing pots. And you have a big impact decision to make...

I check and the MP bets BIG. Then, the player after him bets bigger (enough that I would be pot committed).

I am on FT and there is no time bank. I have to think fast.

1. What's my read on their hands?
Well, I am VERY sure they do NOT have flush draws. The way the betting went pre-flop and post flop, I am sure my flush draw is good.

2. What are my odds?
I always assume a flopped flush draw is 2-1 to get there. EVEN if the first MP folds (which I doubt), I am getting 2-1 plus the current pot size, so about 2.25 to 1

3. What can happen if I win/lose/FOLD.
Well, I am pot commited, so if I lose I am out. If I fold, I am only out the original pre-flop raises and my Q falls to .9 and I have to double up soon or except the distinct possibility that I will not cash. If I win, I will rocket to the top 5 in chips as I TRIPLE up and will actually have a solid chance to cash.

4. Am I about to do something stupid?
The previous hand, I folded the HAMMER UTG because I could not bring myself to play it based on the fact that the hadn before that, I raised 3xBB and stole the blinds from UTG+1. I felt I would have to see a flop with it and could not afford the chips. I thus invoked the CURSE OF THE HAMMER (not playing it when first to act) and would have had a BOAT by the river.

Because of that, I felt I had to justify that by accumulating chips. So, yes, maybe I was, but I could justify the odds.

So, I push my stack in and both players call. When the turn comes, the first MP checks and the second pushes. This is great for me as the first MP folds! (I already have his money in there). But alas, the river is a blank and he pulls down the pot with AJ. (my jack was not live in retrospect).

So, did I play smart, competently, or donk-ish?