Man, yesterday hit a new extreme in variance. Not only did I drop this pot in PLO:
I raise with AA88 2 suited (spades), MP re-raises (I assume with KKQJ or KKQQ), 2 others call?! So I re-POT. MP calls, and FINALLY the interlopers drop leaving a nice 15% overlay in the pot. He shows KKJJ RAINBOW. Set of jack with 2 spades on the flop and I can only watch as 2 red blanks fall on the turn and river. This was the finale of a 3 hour session where I have already lost the other half of my stack in 8-mixed, getting the ass end of everything. I review my play and have a few loose pre-flop calls, but at 6max you cant fold every hand that isn't a perfect starting hand. Other than that, I think I played correctly.
My end of the variance then came later in the evening when I not only misread my opponent (I think the board was JT9 and I had like T8. When he shoves, he could have either a Q or J. One I am behind, the other I am ahead. In the end I make the call and he has the J, but I river the 1 card straight. Then, not a dozen hands later, I CRACK his AA with my 77 after he disguised his Aces well and the flop came 8 high. I felt the pressure would get anything but an overpair to fold. I made a 1 card straight. By the end, my AQ lost to A8 (aprapo) and IGH 4th.
In the Mookie, my AQ simply lost a race with 99. Just that simple.
Some days/nights you just end up with a lot of variance and many races. It will drive you crazy.
3 comments:
It was a weird night for sure. Here is the HH from those 2 hands. You have the action & your cards wrong in the first, but obviously you have the results right!!
Full Tilt Poker Game #10577434180: Carbides league #2 (78909762), Table 1 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:46:08 ET - 2009/02/11
Seat 1: Bullitz4u (4,560)
Seat 2: remysteel (3,315)
Seat 3: Durand Dirty (1,530)
Seat 4: whitstick (2,140)
Seat 5: ericsertyn (1,845)
Seat 7: carbidex3 (5,990)
Seat 8: Wirdpear (4,775)
Seat 9: columbo (1,385)
Wirdpear posts the small blind of 40
columbo posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to carbidex3 [Jd Qc]
Bullitz4u folds
remysteel folds
Durand Dirty folds
whitstick folds
ericsertyn calls 80
carbidex3 calls 80
Wirdpear folds
whitstick: i only win the COOOCKKK BALLS WAY
columbo checks
*** FLOP *** [Js 9c Th]
whitstick: what's ante up strategy
columbo bets 180
ericsertyn folds
carbidex3 calls 180
*** TURN *** [Js 9c Th] [5s]
remysteel: no...poor play with k 10 wins
carbidex3: don't raise AQ
columbo has 15 seconds left to act
columbo checks
carbidex3 bets 475
columbo raises to 1,125, and is all in
carbidex3 calls 650
columbo shows [Kh Ts]
carbidex3 shows [Jd Qc]
columbo: nh
*** RIVER *** [Js 9c Th 5s] [Tc]
columbo shows three of a kind, Tens
carbidex3 shows two pair, Jacks and Tens
columbo wins the pot (2,890) with three of a kind, Tens
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2,890 | Rake 0
Board: [Js 9c Th 5s Tc]
Seat 1: Bullitz4u didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: remysteel didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: Durand Dirty didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: whitstick didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: ericsertyn folded on the Flop
Seat 7: carbidex3 (button) showed [Jd Qc] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Tens
Seat 8: Wirdpear (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: columbo (big blind) showed [Kh Ts] and won (2,890) with three of a kind, Tens
Full Tilt Poker Game #10577822826: Carbides league #2 (78909762), Table 1 - 60/120 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:08:36 ET - 2009/02/11
Seat 1: Bullitz4u (3,015)
Seat 2: remysteel (1,836)
Seat 3: Durand Dirty (1,610)
Seat 4: whitstick (4,839)
Seat 5: ericsertyn (1,195)
Seat 7: carbidex3 (4,225)
Seat 8: Wirdpear (6,125)
Seat 9: columbo (2,695)
remysteel posts the small blind of 60
Durand Dirty posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to carbidex3 [As Ac]
whitstick folds
ericsertyn folds
carbidex3 raises to 325
Wirdpear folds
columbo has 15 seconds left to act
columbo raises to 900
Bullitz4u folds
remysteel folds
Durand Dirty folds
carbidex3 calls 575
*** FLOP *** [4d 8c 5h]
carbidex3 checks
columbo bets 1,795, and is all in
carbidex3 calls 1,795
columbo shows [7d 7h]
carbidex3 shows [As Ac]
columbo: nice
*** TURN *** [4d 8c 5h] [Kd]
*** RIVER *** [4d 8c 5h Kd] [6c]
columbo shows a straight, Eight high
carbidex3 shows a pair of Aces
columbo wins the pot (5,570) with a straight, Eight high
whitstick: WOW
carbidex3: for you
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5,570 | Rake 0
Board: [4d 8c 5h Kd 6c]
Seat 1: Bullitz4u (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: remysteel (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: Durand Dirty (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: whitstick didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: ericsertyn didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: carbidex3 showed [As Ac] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 8: Wirdpear didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: columbo showed [7d 7h] and won (5,570) with a straight, Eight high
I won't piss and moan anymore, but seriously can I run any worse?
LOL
your blog is feel good......
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