Monday, November 19, 2007

steal/re-steal or just plain donkish

After the second break in the big game. Play is tigher than in other BBT events. I ahve $10k which is exactly average. Half the field remains (3 full tables). Blinds are $250/$500 with antes. So, the BB is 5% of my stack. It is usually after the second break that the steals being...

FOLDED around to the BUTTON who makes it $2100 to go (standard would be about 4xBB or $2k at this point). SB folds.

I have ATs in the BB. I am going for the resteal here, and if I am wrong, I atleast want AJ/AQ to FOLD here. I decide that if I come over the top, he can only correctly call with about 4 hands. AA,KK,QQ or AK. (Of course there are actually about twice that, but I dont want him to know this.) Based on all this, I have to bet either $5k (leaving an escape route), or all-in as anything larger commits me to the pot.

I opt for all-in. He has KK and I dont get lucky.

So, stupid or bad luck?


Mike Maloney said...

I hate re-stealing or getting all-in with Ace-rag. You're only ahead of A-9 and below here, and you're a coinflip to 22-99, and way behind everything else.

A-9 and below is pretty much never calling you here, even though if there was a range of hands you might want a call from, that would be it.

22-99, do you really want to get all your chips in on a coinflip because of a steal attempt?

1010-AA, AJ-AK, these are all the hands that have a good chance of calling you, and these are all the hands that are most likely going to bounce you from the tournament.

It just seems to me that the small number of hands the raiser might have that you are convincingly ahead of is not worth the risk of pushing all-in with A-10. Fold equity removes part of that range listed above from the equation, but I still don't think the risk is worth it with such a mediocre hand.

Now, it was unlucky that he happened to have KK, but it could have just as easily been 10-10 and you would have been in the same situation. I probably push back there with AK, AQ, and 99-AA. Anything else, I don't think it's worth it at this point in time.

OhCaptain said...

I agree with Mike. You risk you entire tournament on the hope that he's only trying to steal. Seems like a high price to pay to protect 5% of your stack.

columbo (at eifco dot org) said...

I tend to agree, but let me state that I was not trying to "protect" my blind, but rather steal what amounts to a 20% bonus to my stack.

J.T. said...

I would not have pushed. I hate to have all my chips in the middle and not realy know where I am. I understand the need to steal the blinds, but as stated before... was the risk worth the reward?