Friday, March 06, 2009

How do you escape a set?

Its the bubble of a big tournament and you are above avg in chips. Content to fold you garbage for another 10 minutes, you have played AK so far this level. You are dealt KK and make a 3x BB raise. you get a LP caller (who has you covered) and the BB then calls. The flop is 69T rainbow.

Here is my question of the day. The pot is already large at this point. So, if you bet say 1/2 the pot and the LP raises, how often do you put him on a set vs. AT or JJ?

(Because you can't "call" at this point, the money is going in if you continue on the next street)


Hammer Player a.k.a Hoyazo said...

Unless this is some kind of a major buyin event, I am happy to go broke with KK near the bubble. What do you care making a lousy $6 profit anyways?

Give me a flop of 9TJ or something and i would consider flding. T96 is not quite good enough. Folding one pair to big action on the bubble is def. a good move overall, but KK is ahead of enough hands that would raise there that I'm not letting the $6 bubble make me fold out in this spot.

emptyman said...

I see two things here:

1. You mention the bubble, and a solid table image. You make a standard play, representing your hand very accurately. Considering everything that happens up to the point where you get raised, how can you be ahead? I think you are hoping he only has 2 pair, or the dreamy JJ QQ. It's up to you to trust your reads and make the right play. If you can't be ahead, and you can still reasonably fold, shoving instead is a cop-out.

2. What Hoy said. Bubble irrelevant, except that they are less likely to be making a move. So, shove if it's a shove, fold if it's a fold. Regardless, even on the bubble, it's time to double-up (or sometimes go home) with a hand like KK.

1.5 I've said two seemingly conflicting things. I think in this case they do compete a bit. However, if you trust your abilities to play MUCH better than the competition (I assume you do), then "live and fight another day" gets the slight nod from me. Of course, I'm a wuss.

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Philip said...

I generally agree with Hammer. I don't know your position or the style of the other players, or if anyone has limped ahead of you. So with that said, I'm figuring that there are antes in the pot as well. With antes in the pot as well - a 3BB raise might be too small of a raise and value in some marginal hands from the blinds.

I think a 4-41/2 BB raise would be more effective. With the above mentioned flop, I'd take my chances on a set and bet 65% to 100% of the pot minimum versus half the pot and, if someone raises....take my chances and shove. If my raise in relation to my stack would leave me with a short stack - I'd shove on the flop.

The chances of one of the two callers hitting a set are 8:1 - I think so if he happened to hit a set - oh well.