Wednesday, August 01, 2007

Risk Reward Scenario

I did not post this for days as I contemplated the hand and my finish Monday night. 3 table MTT of NLHE. There are SEVEN left, pays but 3. Note my stack size. I cant make the money by folding. I estimate I need to reach 24k in chips to cash. With the top 3 in chips at 15k+, my EFFECTIVE FINAL TABLE Q is .5, and that is very important to me here... Tell me what you do here...

FINAL Table - 150/300 Ante 25
Seat 1: PokerBrian322 (21,090)
Seat 2: RaisingCayne (5,230)
Seat 3: bartonf (15,524)
Seat 4: IslandBum1 (3,458)
Seat 5 [BUTTON]: hoyazo (16,770)
Seat 6 [SB]: columbo (8,580)
Seat 7:[BB}jeciimd (7,348)
PokerBrian322 antes 25

PokerBrian322 folds
RaisingCayne folds
bartonf folds
IslandBum1 folds
hoyazo has 15 seconds left to act
hoyazo raises to 1,225

Dealt to columbo [Ts Td]
Hoyazo is not know to me to be a "big stack bully", but is famous for his discussions of stealing and re-stealing. AND its folded to him on the button.

If I CALL here, its 15% of my stack and I believe I commit myself to a Stop n Go.

If I RAISE here, its still enough to matter as it would be a 4 times pot raise and 1/2 of Hoyazo's chips.

If he has a premium pair, on the button, folded around, I am dead (JJ,QQ,KK,AA). (Hoyazo has had AA twice in the last 30 minutes.) Based on sheer statistics, I'll ignore that one. If he has Ace-X, he might be afraid of a bigger Ax.
If he has AK, especially suited, he probably calls ANY bet I make, which makes the Stop N Go a better choice. On a non-Ace flop, I would be pushing, but I am SECOND to act. What if he pushed all-in on the flop before I can? Or makes a bet that commits himself? Dunno...

So, what do you want to do here?


Mike Maloney said...

I push. I think Hoy's on a total steal here. First, he's on the button, which is prime stealing territory. Second, he's got a nice-sized chip stack, while both of the blinds are medium stacks who know they have to make up some ground in order to cash. That means you are more likely to fold to his aggression unless you have a real hand. Everything seems to indicate a steal attempt to me.

Tens are a good hand preflop, but tend to decline in quality significantly postflop. I don't know that it's a hand I'd want to stop-n-go with here. If he has a higher PP than you, then if you feel the flop is safe enough to push on, he's probably going to call you anyways. If he has anything else, he's probably folding to your push (Except AK) preflop, but if you just call and wait for the flop, again, any flop you think is worth pushing into probably means he missed the flop too and he will fold.

I think in this hand you're better off getting Hoy off the hand preflop by pushing. If he has a better hand than you, so be it, but I think it's in your best interest to push.

Scott Clark said...

Push. Any significant raise is making you pot committed, so you can either push now for fold equity, or you can raise to 3k-4k and do a stop and go and push regardless of the flop.

Unknown said...

I like a puuuuuuuuuuush here.

But, with lots of play left I could see a flat call. Duke it out on the flop as long as you retain some fold equity.

Anonymous said...

I like a stop n go with 99 or less, but I like a push with TT and up. You are probably ahead so get your money in now, and don't let him get away if the flop misses him.

gadzooks64 said...

I say PUSH, too.

If he's on a steal he folds.

If he's not on a steal you have fold equity.

If he calls you can't be in that bad of shape.

It's double up or go home time.

columbo (at eifco dot org) said...

These sum up my thoughts too. I pushed, he called with AKs and I lost a race.

Too bad, so sad -for me.