Note: the following is not a TACTICS question, but a STRATEGY question.
Let me set the stage...
There are around 24 people left in the Hoy. I have had a below average stack size ALL NIGHT. I keep seeing flops with 78 or 9T and missing by a mile, but this time I flop 59K rainbow and have a gutshot. The ahead player badly underbets the pot, I am guessing because he had a big flop like a set and did not want to chase everyone out. But the 6 comes on the turn and I have the nuts. This time I met a bet to insure a healthy pot and he calls. The pot is now huge, and he is screwed. He somehow escapes the value bet on the river, marking the turn call as a BAD mistake.
I am now at 12k in chips and the average is $7500. I am third in chips, the leader has $20k. There are now 20 left. When this happens...
Blinds are 100/200 with 50 ante
I am in the BB with JJ. Folded around to button (stack size $4500 and the loser of the above hand) who makes is $1000 to go. SB. raises all-in to $5500.
Now, I have a 20% overlay in the button, because if I call here, I dont see how he calls. So, I feel he is going to fold. I also am assuming based on play that the range of hands for the SB here is as low as AJ. (I put him on AQ/AK).
If I THINK its a race, and I THINK the button will fold, do I call this?
Well, I did. The Button DOES fold and the SB turns over AQs. KNOWING THAT, do you like the result?
I LOST the race, and eventually lost back-to-back races to Iggy to put me out 12th.
Did I screw up royally, or was I looking to get where I wanted to be, which was in the money (pays 6 places) and just run into some bad luck?