Thursday, April 21, 2005

The Kobiashi Naru scenario

Its been talked to death on the rgp forums, but in our humble Tuesday night SnG it actaully came up... Read the tale of woe:

-----Original Message-----> from player in seat 9
Now I'll follow up with a fun question from a SNG last night you might recognize.
Blinds are 10/20 everyone has approx 1500 chips. (Basically the first time round the table).
Villian in early position puts in a 4x raise (80).
You look down in middle position and find KK.
You come over the top approx 3x raising to 250.
Everyone folds to villian who moves allin for 1500.
It's 1250 to you, pot is 1780.
Read on villian: made some loopey plays in the past, but no allin in this situation without premium hand.
Do you call with your KK or are you afraid of AA?

Now then lets go the the "famous" version of this question as discussed violently and exhaustively on the rgp group.

It is the first round of the WSOP and you are dealt pocket kings in mid position. You put in a 4xBB raise and as everyone else folds, the SB goes all-in. The WSOP is a $10,000 4 day event and you look up at the clock and your only TWELVE minutes into the tournament. Do you call?
(I spend 4 days discussing my personal answer, so I am very sure its what I would do.) I'll post it as a comment.


columbo (at eifco dot org) said...

I originally thought this was an easy fold. But after thinking about it for 3 weeks, I now know I would call this bet in the WSOP. Here is my logic:

o This is not a SnG or a reasonably sized field where you can expect positive EV on a long range of hands. In order for that to be true, you have to be better than the rest of the field. I don’t think that would apply to me at the WSOP.
o I can not avoid volatility in a large field tournament. In a reasonably sized field, I always try to avoid all coin flips as the caller. With a field this large, however, you are going to have to play and win these volatile hands.
o Who would go all-in that early unless they were trying to establish dominance? I think everyone would be talking about that call and you can add to the mystic by yelling out afterwards, “You think that was crazy, try stealing my blinds”.
o Of course, if he has AA and you call, everyone will call you an idiot calling this. But would you rather be out on day 3 and still not cash? Is that really better for your ego? I mean, that chick from MAXIM magazine cashed. Do we all believe she is a good player or more that she is a good folder?

columbo (at eifco dot org) said...

With the above comment being slanted towards the WSOP, I now ask myself, "if we are indeed creatures of habit" would I act differently in a lowly SnG. Well, maybe. But it seems likely that I call and accept my fate.

I tried this in reverse on someone once and went all in on the first round after the rebuys were over. I had a severe cold deck and had folded 20 hands in a row. I went all-in from the BB pretending to have Aces (I had AQ). He called with QQ (not even KK). So, I think most people cant get away from a big pocket pair.